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Subject: Re: I disagree

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 11:20:00 12/29/03

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On December 29, 2003 at 13:23:33, Sandro Necchi wrote:

>On December 29, 2003 at 12:46:47, Luis Smith wrote:
>
>>>I do agree too.
>>>
>>>Crafty has no realistic chances to win a WCCC.
>>>
>>>Sandro
>>
>>IMO only Bob can know this for sure.  I think people either over estimate the
>>commercials, or underestimate Crafty.  After all at the WCCC's only 11 games
>>were played, who knows what could have happened in that time, especially with
>>the kind of hardware that Dr. Hyatt could get.
>
>No, Bob does not know this.
>He is a "little outdated" on this matter.
>
>At the 2003 WCCC there were 3 favorites (Shredder, Fritz and Junior), 2 possible
>outsiders (Brutus and Diep).
>
>Based on my experience I gave these chances, before the tournament started:
>
>Shredder 35% (because of the slower hardware)
>Fritz    30%
>Junior   25%
>Brutus    7%
>Diep      3%
>rest      0%
>
>Do you really believe Crafty is better than the average rest? I do not. He would
>have to rely on too many bugs on the competition. This is not realistic.
>
>Of course everybody can say anything different, but in reality this is the
>situation.
>
>Someone said that the WCCC is more or less a lottery.
>OK, than can someone can explaing why since 1996 only Junior and Shredder won?

It _is_ a lottery, just look at the odds you give Shredder: a mere 35%.

So even according to your (probably generous) odds, it is obvious that the best
program has a greater chance of _not_ winning than winning!

The same line of reasoning should also tell you, that Crafty on a 32 processor
would _not_ be chanceless.

-S.
>Sandro



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