Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 11:20:00 12/29/03
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On December 29, 2003 at 13:23:33, Sandro Necchi wrote: >On December 29, 2003 at 12:46:47, Luis Smith wrote: > >>>I do agree too. >>> >>>Crafty has no realistic chances to win a WCCC. >>> >>>Sandro >> >>IMO only Bob can know this for sure. I think people either over estimate the >>commercials, or underestimate Crafty. After all at the WCCC's only 11 games >>were played, who knows what could have happened in that time, especially with >>the kind of hardware that Dr. Hyatt could get. > >No, Bob does not know this. >He is a "little outdated" on this matter. > >At the 2003 WCCC there were 3 favorites (Shredder, Fritz and Junior), 2 possible >outsiders (Brutus and Diep). > >Based on my experience I gave these chances, before the tournament started: > >Shredder 35% (because of the slower hardware) >Fritz 30% >Junior 25% >Brutus 7% >Diep 3% >rest 0% > >Do you really believe Crafty is better than the average rest? I do not. He would >have to rely on too many bugs on the competition. This is not realistic. > >Of course everybody can say anything different, but in reality this is the >situation. > >Someone said that the WCCC is more or less a lottery. >OK, than can someone can explaing why since 1996 only Junior and Shredder won? It _is_ a lottery, just look at the odds you give Shredder: a mere 35%. So even according to your (probably generous) odds, it is obvious that the best program has a greater chance of _not_ winning than winning! The same line of reasoning should also tell you, that Crafty on a 32 processor would _not_ be chanceless. -S. >Sandro
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