Author: Vincent Diepeveen
Date: 13:12:49 12/29/03
Go up one level in this thread
On December 29, 2003 at 13:59:55, Mike Byrne wrote: >On December 29, 2003 at 13:23:33, Sandro Necchi wrote: > >>On December 29, 2003 at 12:46:47, Luis Smith wrote: >> >>>>I do agree too. >>>> >>>>Crafty has no realistic chances to win a WCCC. >>>> >>>>Sandro >>> >>>IMO only Bob can know this for sure. I think people either over estimate the >>>commercials, or underestimate Crafty. After all at the WCCC's only 11 games >>>were played, who knows what could have happened in that time, especially with >>>the kind of hardware that Dr. Hyatt could get. >> >>No, Bob does not know this. >>He is a "little outdated" on this matter. >> >>At the 2003 WCCC there were 3 favorites (Shredder, Fritz and Junior), 2 possible >>outsiders (Brutus and Diep). >> >>Based on my experience I gave these chances, before the tournament started: >> >>Shredder 35% (because of the slower hardware) >>Fritz 30% >>Junior 25% >>Brutus 7% >>Diep 3% >>rest 0% > > >The rest of the field is never 0%. Any bookie can tell you that. It might be >15 to 1, 30 to 1 -- even a 100 to 1 . but the chances are never "zero" - that >would make the payoff infinity. > >Besides, the tournamnament format , imo, is stupid. An 11 round swiss with 14 >or so participants? - they should make a "normal" swiss (say 5 rounds with 14 >participants or a round robin - add just 2 more rounds with 14 participants. I >forget exactly the number of rounds and participants, but I'm not far off. The best horseman is on his feet. 5 rounds is very little, you want the strongest participants play each other. 9 rounds is giving that most likely. 11 rounds for sure. In fact i was already upset that the schedule was so late posted on the web. It was around 3 months ahead on the web. However the application for system time to the world champs was done for DIEP in august 2002. I bet others tried too. After another 600 pages of paper further, end of februari 2003 i was given system time permission based upon 9 rounds world championship. Suddenly it appeared a few months before that it was 11 rounds and quite a few days more than i had expected. Big dissappointment. In the event that i would have made it to a playoff at the 30th November, i would not have system time as the world champs suddenly had 11 rounds instead of 9. 20 minutes after round 11, i had no longer access to the 512 processor partition. So 10 rounds i could play at the machine (one full day the machine had crashed, just like the 512 processor partition is already crashed for a week now, not my fault though). The government has given me more system time than was appointed, for which i thank them extensively. Fritz also played remote, Brutus played remote, and there were more applications seemingly for remote operated programs as the tournament organisation kept into account 6 programs that could play remote. We have a chessbrain project now that also can play remote. Further Rudolph Huber with whom GCP and i drove from Muenchen to the tournament hall, he had to work on monday (in total my travel from home to tournament hall has taken 2 days). Many had bought an airplane ticket already of course and had to return either monday morning or already sunday evening. In fact i arrived friday morning very early at the tournament hall, but many arrived saturday morning. Very short before the tournament started. For all events like this you cannot extend the event suddenly by a few days in order to play 15 rounds instead of 11 or make it a few rounds shorter. You make a plan and stick to that. Changing it, all tournament directors will be able to tell you, is not a good plan. By the way the suggestion from Theron to play many short games is not a very good suggestion. I know he wants to proof that searching 1 ply deeper at small search depths is more important than evaluation (i am sure he didn't mean that just to confuse readers here), but it is a failed attempt. It at most shows that he has been too many years away from tournaments. Last time i saw Christophe was world champs 1999. A lot has happened sincethen in computerchess! > > >> >>Do you really believe Crafty is better than the average rest? I do not. He would >>have to rely on too many bugs on the competition. This is not realistic. >> >>Of course everybody can say anything different, but in reality this is the >>situation. >> >>Someone said that the WCCC is more or less a lottery. >>OK, than can someone can explaing why since 1996 only Junior and Shredder won? >> >>Sandro
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