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Subject: Re: Practical lesson for statistics

Author: Anthony Cozzie

Date: 16:08:12 12/29/03

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On December 29, 2003 at 17:28:46, Sune Fischer wrote:

>On December 29, 2003 at 15:47:05, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:
>
>I'm not exactly sure what your point is, we are not talking about humans.
>
>I guess you are implying that Crafty is 1800 and Shredder is 2830 and so Crafty
>is without a chance.
>
>That is utter nonsense of course.
>
>In REALITY Crafty with a big hardware advantage is maybe 50 points weaker than
>Shredder, so in your human analogy that would be like Kramnik winning in front
>of Kasparov.
>
>If you play only 11 rounds it could happen.

OK, lets do a little math.

We know crafty on 2G P4 is about 20-30 elo stronger than Junior on a 266
celeron.

now, I think that:

Using Junior's tournament book:        50 elo for Junior
2x hardware advantage rather than 10x: 80 elo for Junior
4xP4 vs 266 celery:                    80 elo for Junior

Suddenly its game over for Crafty.

So the question is: which of those statements do you disagree with?

anthony



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