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Subject: Re: Practical lesson for statistics

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 16:23:28 12/29/03

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On December 29, 2003 at 19:08:12, Anthony Cozzie wrote:

>On December 29, 2003 at 17:28:46, Sune Fischer wrote:
>
>>On December 29, 2003 at 15:47:05, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:
>>
>>I'm not exactly sure what your point is, we are not talking about humans.
>>
>>I guess you are implying that Crafty is 1800 and Shredder is 2830 and so Crafty
>>is without a chance.
>>
>>That is utter nonsense of course.
>>
>>In REALITY Crafty with a big hardware advantage is maybe 50 points weaker than
>>Shredder, so in your human analogy that would be like Kramnik winning in front
>>of Kasparov.
>>
>>If you play only 11 rounds it could happen.
>
>OK, lets do a little math.
>
>We know crafty on 2G P4 is about 20-30 elo stronger than Junior on a 266
>celeron.
>
>now, I think that:
>
>Using Junior's tournament book:        50 elo for Junior
>2x hardware advantage rather than 10x: 80 elo for Junior
>4xP4 vs 266 celery:                    80 elo for Junior
>
>Suddenly its game over for Crafty.
>
>So the question is: which of those statements do you disagree with?

I'm assuming Bob can scale Crafty's hardware advantage to keep up, ie. that he
could get a 16 or 32 node machine to use against the quads.

The only worry is if there is diminishing returns or some pratical problems in
using so many CPUs.
I do not believe in all that nonsense about tactical barriers, so I think it
will mainly be the technical challenge of it.

About the book I don't believe in 50 elo.
If Bob uses his normal tailor made book full of ICC learning I think it can hold
its own, it may even be better than a book full of abstract theory the engine
doesn't understand.

-S.

>anthony



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