Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 22:07:08 12/29/03
Go up one level in this thread
On December 29, 2003 at 13:43:18, Uri Blass wrote: >On December 29, 2003 at 13:23:33, Sandro Necchi wrote: > >>On December 29, 2003 at 12:46:47, Luis Smith wrote: >> >>>>I do agree too. >>>> >>>>Crafty has no realistic chances to win a WCCC. >>>> >>>>Sandro >>> >>>IMO only Bob can know this for sure. I think people either over estimate the >>>commercials, or underestimate Crafty. After all at the WCCC's only 11 games >>>were played, who knows what could have happened in that time, especially with >>>the kind of hardware that Dr. Hyatt could get. >> >>No, Bob does not know this. >>He is a "little outdated" on this matter. >> >>At the 2003 WCCC there were 3 favorites (Shredder, Fritz and Junior), 2 possible >>outsiders (Brutus and Diep). >> >>Based on my experience I gave these chances, before the tournament started: >> >>Shredder 35% (because of the slower hardware) >>Fritz 30% >>Junior 25% >>Brutus 7% >>Diep 3% >>rest 0% > >I think that it is too risky to give 0% chances for all the rest when you do not >know what the programmers did. > >How could you know that Deep Sjeng had no chances? >After the tournament you know but not before it. > >Did you know details about other programs like Jonny before the tournament? > >How could you know that all the single processors are going to lose when you do >not know what the programmers did and you cannot be sure that nobody did >something clearly better than shredder. > >You can guess that it is the case based on previous experience but you cannot be >sure and I think that it is better to give at least 2% chances for some >surprise. > >I agree that the 5 that you mention were the favourites before the tournament >but the chances of other to win should be evaluated as at least 2%. > >Uri I would not pay a lot of attention to his ramblings. He completely overlooks the fact that Shredder had a horrible bug, and really did not deserve to win this event. "Selective memory" and "selective search" are _not_ the same idea. :) The real winner was Fritz. Shredder was _given_ the win by improper behavior, when a bad programming bug should have knocked it out of the title. If Sandro is proud of that kind of title, so be it... But then saying that "I" count too much on bugs of other programs is a bit of a laugher. "he" had the worst bug that was seen there, as far as I can recall. That wasn't _my_ doing. :)
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