Author: Sandro Necchi
Date: 23:00:20 12/29/03
Go up one level in this thread
On December 29, 2003 at 14:26:19, Daniel Clausen wrote: >On December 29, 2003 at 13:23:33, Sandro Necchi wrote: > >>On December 29, 2003 at 12:46:47, Luis Smith wrote: >> >>>>I do agree too. >>>> >>>>Crafty has no realistic chances to win a WCCC. >>>> >>>>Sandro >>> >>>IMO only Bob can know this for sure. I think people either over estimate the >>>commercials, or underestimate Crafty. After all at the WCCC's only 11 games >>>were played, who knows what could have happened in that time, especially with >>>the kind of hardware that Dr. Hyatt could get. >> >>No, Bob does not know this. >>He is a "little outdated" on this matter. >> >>At the 2003 WCCC there were 3 favorites (Shredder, Fritz and Junior), 2 possible >>outsiders (Brutus and Diep). >> >>Based on my experience I gave these chances, before the tournament started: >> >>Shredder 35% (because of the slower hardware) >>Fritz 30% >>Junior 25% >>Brutus 7% >>Diep 3% >>rest 0% > >Sure, if only you posted that _before_ the tournament. :) [and Shredder has the >most % _because_ of the slower hardware?) No, I did not posted this before the tournament, but I told this to a friend of mine who asked me. To write things here is not fun as too many people will start criticize immediately. I do not want to win discussion battles. I want to win on the board. People that know me since many years, as I have been writing computer chess articles on Italian magazines for more than 10 years, ask me and think I am reliable. If other people think different, it is OK. They can chose what they want. > > >>Of course everybody can say anything different, but in reality this is the >>situation. > >Hard to argue with this POV. :-D > > >>Someone said that the WCCC is more or less a lottery. >>OK, than can someone can explaing why since 1996 only Junior and Shredder won? > >I just threw a dice 5 times and came up with the numbers 3, 6, 1, 5 and 6. >Someone said it's random numbers but I say it's not. It's 3, 6, 1, 5 and 6. >Proof? I just did it! > >Sargon > >PS. Given the percentages above, it's highly unlikely, that only Junior and >Shredder would win in 7 WCCC-tournaments. But envertheless they did. In a way, >you just proved it _is_ a lottery. :) Well, in a few games there are chances for all the programs which are close in strenght. This is reasonable. Sandro
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