Author: Mike Byrne
Date: 14:16:24 12/30/03
Go up one level in this thread
On December 30, 2003 at 16:44:38, Keith Evans wrote: >On December 29, 2003 at 13:59:55, Mike Byrne wrote: > >> >> >>The rest of the field is never 0%. Any bookie can tell you that. It might be >>15 to 1, 30 to 1 -- even a 100 to 1 . but the chances are never "zero" - that >>would make the payoff infinity. > >Bookies are really predicting how people will bet, not the outcome of an event. >So you're not betting against the bookie, you're betting against his other >clients. He tries to make it to that he is transferring money between his >clients and skimming off a percentage. Thank you. I was waiting for somebody to raise that issue. A bet is nothing more than futures contract. The accuracy of futures (when poeple really "bet" with their own money is well documented - when it comes to thier own money - people like to win their "bets". Sometimes they win because they have inside information - it's all relfected in the odds.. It's not a 100%, but it's better than most single individual prognosticator. Here' s a good link http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ We are getting off-topic - so for further discussion on the accuracy of financial futures - let's move it to CTF. Thanks, Michael
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.