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Subject: Re: I just don't get this ...

Author: Kurt Utzinger

Date: 23:52:18 01/03/04

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On January 03, 2004 at 20:53:39, Rick Rice wrote:

>Person A posts a message saying Ruffian 2.0 is very dissapointing, with the
>results to back it up. This is followed by a second post which basically says
>that Ruffian 2.0 rocks with some results to back it up. Are these programs
>really so time and hardware sensitive, so as to show varying results on
>different CPUs/time controls?
>
>Ideal solution would be for SSDF to have one massive board with one CPU and
>memory for each program (equal CPU and mem for all the progs on its list) and
>some way to automate the play of these programs against each other..... on
>different time controls such as regular, blitz etc. Just wishful thinking for
>the future, but it would eliminate the multiple and varying results.
>
>Cheers,
>Rick

It's indeed most important to play enough games to get an objective impression
about any program. I give below an example of a match [40'/40] I have played
over 100 games between Gandalf 4.32g and Program_X [I am a beta tester of X] to
show what I mean:

Gandalf 4.32g vs Program X

Games 1-10
3.0-7.0 [win program X]
Total 3.0-7.0 for program X

Games 11-20
6.5-3.5 [win Gandalf]
Total 9.5-10.5 for program X

Games 21-30
5.0-5.0 [draw]
Total 14.5-15.5 for program X

Games 31-40
3.5-6.5 [win program X]
Total 18.0-22.0 for program X

Games 41-50
4.5-5.5 [win program X]
Total 22.5-27.5 for program X

Games 51-60
3.0-7.0 [win program X
Total 25.5-34.5 for program X

Games 61-70
5.0-5.0 [draw]
Total 30.5-39.5 for program X

Games 71-80
8.0-2.0 [win Gandalf]
Total 38.5-41.5 for program X

Games 81-90
7.0-3.0 [win Gandalf]
Total 45.5-44.5 for Gandalf

Games 91-100
5.5-4.5 [win Gandalf]
Final match result 51.0-49.0 for Gandalf

Can anybody tell me for sure which of the above two is the stronger program??
And what about if I had only played a 20 games match and these games would have
been those played in rounds 71-90? Then, the result would have been 15.0-5.0 in
favour of Gandalf 4.32g!! Imagine what some testers would have argued about the
strenght of program X?

For all these reasons I think that something concrete about the strength between
two programs can only be said if 100, better 200-300 games or even more have
been played.

Kurt



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