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Subject: Re: I just don't get this ...

Author: George Tsavdaris

Date: 02:45:44 01/04/04

Go up one level in this thread


On January 04, 2004 at 02:15:05, Mark Young wrote:

>On January 04, 2004 at 00:42:02, Christophe Theron wrote:
>
>>On January 03, 2004 at 20:53:39, Rick Rice wrote:
>>
>>>Person A posts a message saying Ruffian 2.0 is very dissapointing, with the
>>>results to back it up. This is followed by a second post which basically says
>>>that Ruffian 2.0 rocks with some results to back it up. Are these programs
>>>really so time and hardware sensitive, so as to show varying results on
>>>different CPUs/time controls?
>>>
>>>Ideal solution would be for SSDF to have one massive board with one CPU and
>>>memory for each program (equal CPU and mem for all the progs on its list) and
>>>some way to automate the play of these programs against each other..... on
>>>different time controls such as regular, blitz etc. Just wishful thinking for
>>>the future, but it would eliminate the multiple and varying results.
>>>
>>>Cheers,
>>>Rick
>>
>>
>>
>>Statistics are extremely important in chess, and in computer chess.
>>
>>Unfortunately, even after years of talks about the subject, almost nobody on
>>this message forum understands that you really need A LOT OF GAMES to start to
>>have an impression of a probability about which program is stronger.
>
>You need to be more accurate. This is not always true. You need more games the
>closer the two programs are in strength.  A 20 game match is more then enough if
>you score something like 17 - 3 or better. If so there is a very high likely
>hood that the winner is stronger. I did not have to play 10,000 games to know
>Shredder was stronger then bam bam.

NO. You can NEVER say Shredder is better than Bam Bam! (meaning that the
probability to be better is 100%). You can only say Shredder is better than
Bam Bam with a probability 99.99999999878%. Although some people say this is
100%, this is wrong.

>
>
>>
>>The variations you have noticed do not come from different setups.
>>
>>These variations are statistical variations. That means that most of the match
>>results posted here are statistically MEANINGLESS.
>>
>>People love to proudly post the result of the 20 games match they have run
>>overnight. They don't even care to know if that result has any meaning. Well in
>>most of the cases the result means nothing (just a waste of electric power) and
>>you should not care about it at all.
>
>I don't think people posting on ICC is a waste of electric power. It is one
>piece of data. If that is all you had... It would not mean much, but when many
>post 20 game match results. It can mean something.
>
>>
>>
>>
>>    Christophe



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