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Subject: Re: I just don't get this ...

Author: Mark Young

Date: 03:15:37 01/04/04

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On January 04, 2004 at 05:45:44, George Tsavdaris wrote:

>On January 04, 2004 at 02:15:05, Mark Young wrote:
>
>>On January 04, 2004 at 00:42:02, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>
>>>On January 03, 2004 at 20:53:39, Rick Rice wrote:
>>>
>>>>Person A posts a message saying Ruffian 2.0 is very dissapointing, with the
>>>>results to back it up. This is followed by a second post which basically says
>>>>that Ruffian 2.0 rocks with some results to back it up. Are these programs
>>>>really so time and hardware sensitive, so as to show varying results on
>>>>different CPUs/time controls?
>>>>
>>>>Ideal solution would be for SSDF to have one massive board with one CPU and
>>>>memory for each program (equal CPU and mem for all the progs on its list) and
>>>>some way to automate the play of these programs against each other..... on
>>>>different time controls such as regular, blitz etc. Just wishful thinking for
>>>>the future, but it would eliminate the multiple and varying results.
>>>>
>>>>Cheers,
>>>>Rick
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>Statistics are extremely important in chess, and in computer chess.
>>>
>>>Unfortunately, even after years of talks about the subject, almost nobody on
>>>this message forum understands that you really need A LOT OF GAMES to start to
>>>have an impression of a probability about which program is stronger.
>>
>>You need to be more accurate. This is not always true. You need more games the
>>closer the two programs are in strength.  A 20 game match is more then enough if
>>you score something like 17 - 3 or better. If so there is a very high likely
>>hood that the winner is stronger. I did not have to play 10,000 games to know
>>Shredder was stronger then bam bam.
>
>NO. You can NEVER say Shredder is better than Bam Bam! (meaning that the
>probability to be better is 100%). You can only say Shredder is better than
>Bam Bam with a probability 99.99999999878%. Although some people say this is
>100%, this is wrong.

You need to stop being cute and read what I posted. I never said better, I said
stronger. And I never said 100%. I said I don't need 10,000 games.

I'm not 100% sure your were trying to be cute only 99.997%.:)

>
>>
>>
>>>
>>>The variations you have noticed do not come from different setups.
>>>
>>>These variations are statistical variations. That means that most of the match
>>>results posted here are statistically MEANINGLESS.
>>>
>>>People love to proudly post the result of the 20 games match they have run
>>>overnight. They don't even care to know if that result has any meaning. Well in
>>>most of the cases the result means nothing (just a waste of electric power) and
>>>you should not care about it at all.
>>
>>I don't think people posting on ICC is a waste of electric power. It is one
>>piece of data. If that is all you had... It would not mean much, but when many
>>post 20 game match results. It can mean something.
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>    Christophe



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