Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: I just don't get this ...

Author: George Tsavdaris

Date: 06:48:10 01/04/04

Go up one level in this thread


On January 04, 2004 at 06:15:37, Mark Young wrote:

>On January 04, 2004 at 05:45:44, George Tsavdaris wrote:
>
>>On January 04, 2004 at 02:15:05, Mark Young wrote:
>>
>>>On January 04, 2004 at 00:42:02, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 03, 2004 at 20:53:39, Rick Rice wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>Person A posts a message saying Ruffian 2.0 is very dissapointing, with the
>>>>>results to back it up. This is followed by a second post which basically says
>>>>>that Ruffian 2.0 rocks with some results to back it up. Are these programs
>>>>>really so time and hardware sensitive, so as to show varying results on
>>>>>different CPUs/time controls?
>>>>>
>>>>>Ideal solution would be for SSDF to have one massive board with one CPU and
>>>>>memory for each program (equal CPU and mem for all the progs on its list) and
>>>>>some way to automate the play of these programs against each other..... on
>>>>>different time controls such as regular, blitz etc. Just wishful thinking for
>>>>>the future, but it would eliminate the multiple and varying results.
>>>>>
>>>>>Cheers,
>>>>>Rick
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Statistics are extremely important in chess, and in computer chess.
>>>>
>>>>Unfortunately, even after years of talks about the subject, almost nobody on
>>>>this message forum understands that you really need A LOT OF GAMES to start to
>>>>have an impression of a probability about which program is stronger.
>>>
>>>You need to be more accurate. This is not always true. You need more games the
>>>closer the two programs are in strength.  A 20 game match is more then enough if
>>>you score something like 17 - 3 or better. If so there is a very high likely
>>>hood that the winner is stronger. I did not have to play 10,000 games to know
>>>Shredder was stronger then bam bam.
>>
>>NO. You can NEVER say Shredder is better than Bam Bam! (meaning that the
>>probability to be better is 100%). You can only say Shredder is better than
>>Bam Bam with a probability 99.99999999878%. Although some people say this is
>>100%, this is wrong.
>
>You need to stop being cute and read what I posted. I never said better, I said
>stronger. And I never said 100%. I said I don't need 10,000 games.

1) What do you mean when you say: "Shredder is stronger than Bam Bam"?
It must mean 100%. If not, then you have to say how much stronger. For example:
"Shredder is C % stronger than Bam Bam".
It isn't reasonable if you say:"Shredder is stronger than Bam Bam" and you mean
"Shredder is stronger than Bam Bam with a probability of 88%" .
Sorry if i am amazingly pedantic but .....

2)I think the statement "A is better chess player than B" is exactly the same
with "A is stronger in chess than B".  I can't find a difference and i can't
understand where do you find the difference.

>
>I'm not 100% sure your were trying to be cute only 99.997%.:)

I don't try to be cute, only as possible accurate as i can :)

>
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>>The variations you have noticed do not come from different setups.
>>>>
>>>>These variations are statistical variations. That means that most of the match
>>>>results posted here are statistically MEANINGLESS.
>>>>
>>>>People love to proudly post the result of the 20 games match they have run
>>>>overnight. They don't even care to know if that result has any meaning. Well in
>>>>most of the cases the result means nothing (just a waste of electric power) and
>>>>you should not care about it at all.
>>>
>>>I don't think people posting on ICC is a waste of electric power. It is one
>>>piece of data. If that is all you had... It would not mean much, but when many
>>>post 20 game match results. It can mean something.
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>    Christophe



This page took 0.01 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.