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Subject: Re: A question about statistics...

Author: Bo Persson

Date: 14:15:33 01/04/04

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On January 04, 2004 at 13:46:48, Ricardo Gibert wrote:

>    -------------------------------
>
>In the examples given before, the number of decisive games depends on the number
>of draws e.g. +17-3=0 and +14-0=6 are not of equal value since the number
>decisive games are not equal.
>
>Let's take a more obvious example. Let's say we play a 1000 game match and I win
>by +20-0=980. I only score 51%, but if we then play a short match, your chances
>of winning such a match is virtually zero, since the longer match has clearly
>demonstrated you couldn't win a game if your life depended on it.
>
>Now compare this with the alternative possibility. We play a 1000 game match and
>I win +510-490=0. Again 51%. Now we play a short match afterward, the match
>outcome will be very nearly a virtual coin flip.
>
>The first match is very convincing in demonstrating superiority. It is just as
>effective as +20-0=0 is as per Remi.

No, it's not!

+20-0=980 shows that you on average can win one game out of 50. What does that
tell us about your chances in a 20 game match?

I would bet my money on +0-0=20


Bo Persson



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