Author: Peter Berger
Date: 16:51:15 01/04/04
Go up one level in this thread
On January 04, 2004 at 19:46:51, Ricardo Gibert wrote: >On January 04, 2004 at 17:44:08, Dieter Buerssner wrote: > >>On January 04, 2004 at 13:46:48, Ricardo Gibert wrote: >> >>>On January 04, 2004 at 12:47:25, Peter Berger wrote: >>> >>>>On January 04, 2004 at 12:40:00, Ricardo Gibert wrote: >>>> >>>>>On January 04, 2004 at 12:29:15, Mark Young wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>A score of 17 - 3 in a 20 game match has a certainty of over 99% that the winner >>>>>>of the match is stronger then the loser. >>>>>> >>>>>>A 100 game match ending 55 - 45 only has a 81% chance that the winner of the >>>>>>match is the stronger program. >>>>>> >>>>>>A 200 game match ending 106 - 94 only has a 78 % chance that the winner is >>>>>>stronger then the loser. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Nothing you have said is really correct because you have ignored the significant >>>>>effect of draws in a match. >> >>I think, I understand the issue you rise. However, 17-3 will be more significant >>than the other results independent of draw. So, still some truth there. I really >>wonder, how exactly Elostat calculates the +/- margins to the calculated rating. >>Does anybody know an URL, where one can read this? >> >>>>The percentage of draws doesn't matter at all when it is about the conclusion >>>>which program is strongest based on the above match results. >>>> >>>>This has been shown by Remi Coloum and explained in multiple posts >>>>here(unfortunately the search engine hasn't found a new home yet). >>>> >>>>6-0 with 0 draws and 6-0 with 1000 draws has the exact same prediction value >>>>when it is about the question which engine is stronger based on a match result. >>> >>>In this case, the number of decisive games (w+L=6) and margin of victory (w-L=6) >>>is the same in both cases so the conclusion they have equal value is correct. >>> >>> ------------------------------- >>> >>>In the examples given before, the number of decisive games depends on the number >>>of draws e.g. +17-3=0 and +14-0=6 are not of equal value since the number >>>decisive games are not equal. >> >>Hey, I think Peter and Ricardo wanted to say exactly the same thing. Still they >>succeeded to disagree. > >??? Not exactly the same thing at all. He said, "The percentage of draws doesn't >matter at all when it is about the conclusion which program is strongest based >on the above match results." This implies that +55-45=0 is the same as +10-0=90 >and I completely disagree with this. > Dieter wasn't that wrong. My answer was non-sequitur and worded in a superficial way, which is a bad thing. Though you are right and my post made little sense I didn't really disagree with you anyway.
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