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Subject: Re: Statics C Group Wijk Aan Zee completely decisive(OT)

Author: Michael Yee

Date: 17:02:08 01/19/04

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On January 19, 2004 at 19:46:35, Brack Nickrow wrote:

>anyone know aproximately the odds of a completely decisive round as occured in
>the C group at Wijk Aan zee
>
>Round 8 - Monday the 19th
>K. Lahno - T. Barendse 1-0
>S. Ernst - M. Etmans 1-0
>J. Smeets - D. Pavasovic 1-0
>M. Carlsen - J. Werle 1-0
>Z. Peng - M. Gagunashvili 1-0
>M. Pavlovic - R. Janssen 1-0
>V. Popov - T. Lanchava 1-0

Here's a rough calculation...

From the previous 7 rounds for Group C, there were 13 draws out of 49
games--approx 26.53% chance of a draw.

Using this estimate, the probability of no draws for all games of a round is

(1 - 0.2653)^7 = 0.1155

So there was about an 11% chance.

Michael



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