Author: Michael Yee
Date: 17:02:08 01/19/04
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On January 19, 2004 at 19:46:35, Brack Nickrow wrote: >anyone know aproximately the odds of a completely decisive round as occured in >the C group at Wijk Aan zee > >Round 8 - Monday the 19th >K. Lahno - T. Barendse 1-0 >S. Ernst - M. Etmans 1-0 >J. Smeets - D. Pavasovic 1-0 >M. Carlsen - J. Werle 1-0 >Z. Peng - M. Gagunashvili 1-0 >M. Pavlovic - R. Janssen 1-0 >V. Popov - T. Lanchava 1-0 Here's a rough calculation... From the previous 7 rounds for Group C, there were 13 draws out of 49 games--approx 26.53% chance of a draw. Using this estimate, the probability of no draws for all games of a round is (1 - 0.2653)^7 = 0.1155 So there was about an 11% chance. Michael
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