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Subject: Re: Top Ten in Blitz Follow up

Author: Paul Doire

Date: 21:11:52 01/19/04

Go up one level in this thread


On January 20, 2004 at 00:05:01, Ricardo Gibert wrote:

>On January 19, 2004 at 22:09:57, Paul Doire wrote:
>
>>On January 19, 2004 at 21:51:45, Ricardo Gibert wrote:
>>
>>>On January 19, 2004 at 21:35:00, Ed Panek wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 19, 2004 at 18:05:35, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 19, 2004 at 16:47:04, Paul Doire wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 19, 2004 at 16:26:57, Paul Doire wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>PIII 450, WINSE, 256 RAM
>>>>>>>CHESSBASE GUI, 32 MB RAM HASH,
>>>>>>>PONDER OFF, FRITZ7.CTG
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Fritz book used for its size other tourneys utilized smaller
>>>>>>>higher ELO books.
>>>>>>>Also Shredder 704 was using special settings Haddad 1.2DP5,
>>>>>>>which I obtained from
>>>>>>>http://members.lycos.co.uk/chesslovers/zied/
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I also ran identical tourney on Celeron 542 Mhz
>>>>>>>with Shredder at default. Post to follow.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Ratings were assigned using Fritz 8 at 2753 per SSDF.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Top Ten SSDF, Fritz7ctg, Shr1.2DP5 ,5mi  2004
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>                                  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   0
>>>>>>>1   Chess Tiger 15.0  2771    +3  *** ½1½ 11½ ½½½ 01½ 0½½ ½11 10½ 101 110
>>>>>>>16.5/27  219.50
>>>>>>>2   Fritz 8           2771    +3  ½0½ *** 0½1 11½ 1½½ ½½0 111 ½½0 11½ 110
>>>>>>>16.5/27  213.25
>>>>>>>3   Deep Fritz 8      2771    +3  00½ 1½0 *** 0½½ ½10 11½ 111 ½11 101 101
>>>>>>>16.5/27  207.75
>>>>>>>4   Ruffian 2.0.0     2714     0  ½½½ 00½ 1½½ *** ½00 ½½1 ½½0 ½11 ½11 ½01
>>>>>>>14.0/27
>>>>>>>5   Shredder 7.04     2703     0  10½ 0½½ ½01 ½11 *** ½01 ½01 ½10 0½½ ½10
>>>>>>>13.5/27
>>>>>>>6   Deep Fritz 7      2681    -1  1½½ ½½1 00½ ½½0 ½10 *** 00½ ½½½ ½½1 ½½½
>>>>>>>12.5/27  169.75
>>>>>>>7   Junior 8          2681    -1  ½00 000 000 ½½1 ½10 11½ *** 0½1 ½½½ 111
>>>>>>>12.5/27  153.00
>>>>>>>8   Hiarcs 9          2658    -1  01½ ½½1 ½00 ½00 ½01 ½½½ 1½0 *** 001 ½½½
>>>>>>>11.5/27
>>>>>>>9   Deep Junior 8     2647    -2  010 00½ 010 ½00 1½½ ½½0 ½½½ 110 *** ½01
>>>>>>>11.0/27
>>>>>>>10  The King 3.23     2635    -2  001 001 010 ½10 ½01 ½½½ 000 ½½½ ½10 ***
>>>>>>>10.5/27
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Average elo: 2703 <=> Category: 19
>>>>>>>gm = 9.72 m = 4.32
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Second tournament
>>>>>>Shredder 704 default
>>>>>>Ratings were assigned using Fritz 8 at 2753 per SSDF.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Note Elo top to bottom difference 136 1st tournament
>>>>>>Note Elo top to bottom difference 120 2nd tournament
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Top Ten SSDF, Fritz7ctg,ShredDef, 5min-  2004
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Top Ten SSDF, Fritz7ctg,ShredDef, 5min-  2004
>>>>>>
>>>>>>                                  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   0
>>>>>>1   Shredder 7.04     2764    +2  *** ½½1 ½½1 11½ 0½½ 10½ ½½½ ½01 11½ 0½1
>>>>>>16.0/27
>>>>>>2   Fritz 8           2753    +1  ½½0 *** 10½ 111 ½11 0½0 010 ½11 1½½ 01½
>>>>>>15.5/27  205.00
>>>>>>3   Hiarcs 9          2753    +1  ½½0 01½ *** ½10 ½½½ 111 ½½0 0½1 110 ½11
>>>>>>15.5/27  201.25
>>>>>>4   Chess Tiger 15.0  2742     0  00½ 000 ½01 *** ½1½ ½½½ 1½1 01½ 111 11½
>>>>>>15.0/27
>>>>>>5   Deep Fritz 8      2730    +1  1½½ ½00 ½½½ ½0½ *** ½½1 10½ 11½ 0½1 101
>>>>>>14.5/27
>>>>>>6   Junior 8          2708     0  01½ 1½1 000 ½½½ ½½0 *** ½1½ 111 10½ 0½0
>>>>>>13.5/27
>>>>>>7   Deep Junior 8     2686    -1  ½½½ 101 ½½1 0½0 01½ ½0½ *** 01½ 00½ 101
>>>>>>12.5/27
>>>>>>8   Deep Fritz 7      2652    -2  ½10 ½00 1½0 10½ 00½ 000 10½ *** ½0½ 111
>>>>>>11.0/27  146.00
>>>>>>9   Ruffian 2.0.0     2652    -2  00½ 0½½ 001 000 1½0 01½ 11½ ½1½ *** ½0½
>>>>>>11.0/27  144.75
>>>>>>10  The King 3.23     2640    -2  1½0 10½ ½00 00½ 010 1½1 010 000 ½1½ ***
>>>>>>10.5/27
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Average elo: 2708 <=> Category: 19
>>>>>>gm = 9.72 m = 4.32
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Looks like Shredder 7.04 Default is stronger per this group of games.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>No, you cannot conclude that. You do not have enough games for any statistical
>>>>>evidence.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>    Christophe
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Statistically speaking he can make any conclusion he wishes..its just that his
>>>>degree of confidence will be lower. :-)
>>>>
>>>>Ed
>>>
>>>I usually refrain from pointing such things. The level of understanding
>>>mathematical topics is not high here and pointing such things out does not seem
>>>to remedy the situation.
>>>
>>>For a very similar example to yours, see:
>>>
>>>http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?343165
>>>
>>>I usually prefer to just sit back and chuckle. :-)
>>
>>Dear ...ahem chuckler.....pleaaase.
>>I never made statistical signifance of these findings....I claimed simply some
>>conclusions based on "these games"...a tad more than 5 ...so math is obviously
>>not your strength either. This is my opinion based on this small sampling.
>>Sounds like laughing one, you may need a remedial reading lesson as well as a
>>math lesson, although I am sure this will not remedy the situation..I prefer to
>>sit back and laugh. :-)
>
>My comment wasn't really about you at all. However, your paranoia seems to be
>insisting otherwise.
>
>The point of EP's comment was that it is perfectly reasonable to draw
>conclusions from a small sample, even though the confidence in the conclusion
>won't be particularly high.
>
>The ones that made me chuckle were CT and RH, since rejecting the conclusion out
>of hand is definitely not reasonable.
>
>So you see, until your response to me, you had emerged unscathed only to fall on
>your own sword at the last moment.

Ok I understand now, please ignore next post.

Regards,
Paul



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