Author: Christophe Theron
Date: 09:53:16 01/22/04
Go up one level in this thread
On January 21, 2004 at 20:00:12, Kolss wrote:
>Hi,
>
>How many games you need depends on what you want to show, of course... :-)
>If my calculations are correct, I get the following:
>
>Shredder 8 vs. Shredder 7.04:
>
>+90 -65 =145
>
>=> 162.5 - 137.5
>
>=> 54.17 %
>
>=>
>Elo difference = +29
>95 % confidence interval: [+1, +58]
>
>That means that based on this 300-game match (for this particular time control
>on this particular computer with these particular settings etc.), your best
>guess is that S8 is 29 Elo points better than S7.04 (highest likelihood for that
>value); there is a 95 % chance that S8 is between 1 and 58 Elo points better;
>and the likelihood that S8 is (at least 1 Elo point) better than S7.04 is 97.5
>%.
>
>So if you "only" want to show that S8 is better, you can - statistically
>speaking - stop now. If you want to "prove" that it is more than 20 Elo points
>better, you need a few more games indeed...
>
>Best regards - Munjong.
It's great to see that at least one guy is able to correctly interpret match
results here.
I hope you will post more often on this subject. Information on it is very much
needed here.
Christophe
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