Author: Kolss
Date: 04:08:07 01/23/04
Go up one level in this thread
On January 22, 2004 at 12:53:16, Christophe Theron wrote: >On January 21, 2004 at 20:00:12, Kolss wrote: > >>Hi, >> >>How many games you need depends on what you want to show, of course... :-) >>If my calculations are correct, I get the following: >> >>Shredder 8 vs. Shredder 7.04: >> >>+90 -65 =145 >> >>=> 162.5 - 137.5 >> >>=> 54.17 % >> >>=> >>Elo difference = +29 >>95 % confidence interval: [+1, +58] >> >>That means that based on this 300-game match (for this particular time control >>on this particular computer with these particular settings etc.), your best >>guess is that S8 is 29 Elo points better than S7.04 (highest likelihood for that >>value); there is a 95 % chance that S8 is between 1 and 58 Elo points better; >>and the likelihood that S8 is (at least 1 Elo point) better than S7.04 is 97.5 >>%. >> >>So if you "only" want to show that S8 is better, you can - statistically >>speaking - stop now. If you want to "prove" that it is more than 20 Elo points >>better, you need a few more games indeed... >> >>Best regards - Munjong. > > > >It's great to see that at least one guy is able to correctly interpret match >results here. > >I hope you will post more often on this subject. Information on it is very much >needed here. Well, as my former English teacher used to say: "I'm talking to the trees - but they aren't listening to me..." :-) I guess some people just don't bother trying to consult a *basic* statistics book before jumping on you... ;-) Best regards - Munjong.
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