Author: Janosch Zwerensky
Date: 07:36:28 02/17/04
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>>but there is Rule 2: The Computer-SpeedUp-Curve has a saturation. >>This 1.5- factor will be decreasing with years and years. > >I think the opposite is true. It used to be that every 1.5 years the speed >doubled. Now it has shrunk to every 1.0 years. I have seen a study that shows >that compute speed has been growing superexponentially for the last couple >centuries. Well, no exponential is going to last forever, as they say.... :) At any rate, a hundred years might be about right after all. As far as I know, by the mid-nineties, which is ten years ago, the top programs were said to be around 10-kyu, which would be two or possibly three stones weaker than they are now. Given that the top programs of today are around 20 stones weaker than the strongest humans..... >(...) >I expect that they might be 2^150 faster. Are you sure that such a thing would even be compatible with known laws of physics? Aside from that, though I'd tend to agree with you that likely lack of suitable hardware is not going to be a problem for computer go researchers (as might well be the case today), one should notice that there's no such thing as a Moore's law for software development... Regards, Janosch
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