Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 14:55:10 02/23/04
Go up one level in this thread
On February 23, 2004 at 17:48:45, Dann Corbit wrote:
>On February 22, 2004 at 17:25:55, Ratko V Tomic wrote:
>
>>While the draw is not 100.000...% guaranteed, extrapolating from the endgame
>>table-bases and theory -- any endgame with symmetrical material & position and
>>far apart, mutually isolated forces is a draw -- overwhealming odds are it is a
>>draw. Another extrapolation indicating a draw for the perfect play is that the
>>percentage of draws increases as the players' strengths increase. The
>>diminishing returns indicate the same (the rise in draw percentage) for the
>>computers as the processing power increases.
>
>It would be interesting to see if it is due to evenly matched skill set or
>simply with increasing strength.
>
>What I mean by that is to:
>1. Match together programs that are very strong and evenly matched.
>2. Match together programs that are medium in strength and evenly matched.
>3. Match together programs that are not very strong and evenly matched.
>
>Then, looking at the result, do we see a higher and higher proportion of draws
>as a function of Elo?
>
>If the draw ratio stays the same, then it would seem that draws are simply the
>most probable output between evenly matched opponents. But if the draws
>increase in frequency then we can extrapolate that they may become more probable
>with an increase in strength.
Here is a result from the battle of the crowns chess contest:
Program Score % Av.Op. Elo + - Draws
1 TSCP : 30.0/ 36 83.3 2275 2555 83 155 22.2 %
2 Monik : 25.0/ 36 69.4 2289 2432 96 146 11.1 %
3 Storm : 21.5/ 36 59.7 2297 2365 107 112 19.4 %
4 Noonian : 21.0/ 36 58.3 2298 2356 109 78 44.4 %
5 Ozwald : 19.5/ 36 54.2 2300 2330 115 104 19.4 %
6 Zephyr : 19.5/ 36 54.2 2300 2330 115 97 25.0 %
7 LarsenVB : 19.5/ 36 54.2 2300 2330 115 97 25.0 %
8 SnailSCP : 10.0/ 36 27.8 2320 2154 129 93 22.2 %
9 Raffaela : 9.0/ 36 25.0 2322 2132 135 90 22.2 %
10 Golem01 : 5.0/ 36 13.9 2335 2018 237 81 5.6 %
Program Score % Av.Op. Elo + - Draws
1 Freyr : 31.0/ 44 70.5 2292 2443 84 130 13.6 %
2 Cilian : 30.5/ 44 69.3 2293 2434 85 131 11.4 %
3 Sjeng73 : 30.0/ 44 68.2 2293 2426 86 117 18.2 %
4 Faile : 28.0/ 44 63.6 2296 2394 91 102 22.7 %
5 Averno : 25.0/ 44 56.8 2301 2348 99 93 22.7 %
6 SSEchess : 24.0/ 44 54.5 2302 2334 103 90 22.7 %
7 Gully2 : 22.5/ 44 51.1 2304 2312 108 94 15.9 %
8 ColChess : 22.0/ 44 50.0 2305 2305 95 95 22.7 %
9 Chessterfield: 16.5/ 44 37.5 2312 2223 97 92 25.0 %
10 DChess : 16.5/ 44 37.5 2312 2223 123 92 6.8 %
11 NewRival : 12.0/ 44 27.3 2319 2148 126 82 18.2 %
12 Crux : 6.0/ 44 13.6 2331 2011 204 71 9.1 %
Program Score % Av.Op. Elo + - Draws
1 ExChess : 32.0/ 44 72.7 2285 2455 82 126 18.2 %
2 ArasanX : 31.0/ 44 70.5 2287 2438 84 106 27.3 %
3 lambChop : 29.5/ 44 67.0 2289 2412 87 104 25.0 %
4 Ant : 25.5/ 44 58.0 2295 2350 98 97 20.5 %
5 InmiChess3 : 24.0/ 44 54.5 2297 2328 103 86 27.3 %
6 Knightx : 24.0/ 44 54.5 2297 2328 103 106 9.1 %
7 GNUChess4 : 19.5/ 44 44.3 2303 2263 89 101 25.0 %
8 Dragon : 18.5/ 44 42.0 2304 2248 97 98 20.5 %
9 Amyan : 16.0/ 44 36.4 2307 2210 90 91 31.8 %
10 gnuchess : 16.0/ 44 36.4 2307 2210 102 91 22.7 %
11 Fortress : 14.0/ 44 31.8 2310 2178 117 86 18.2 %
12 LDBlanche : 14.0/ 44 31.8 2310 2178 95 86 31.8 %
Program Score % Av.Op. Elo + - Draws
1 LGoliath : 37.0/ 52 71.2 2289 2445 76 99 26.9 %
2 Crafty : 32.0/ 52 61.5 2294 2376 85 77 34.6 %
3 AnMon : 31.5/ 52 60.6 2294 2369 86 83 28.8 %
4 Amy : 28.5/ 52 54.8 2297 2331 93 85 21.2 %
5 SOS : 28.0/ 52 53.8 2298 2325 94 82 23.1 %
6 Bringer : 27.5/ 52 52.9 2298 2318 96 72 32.7 %
7 TCBishop : 27.0/ 52 51.9 2299 2312 97 73 30.8 %
8 Phalanx : 26.5/ 52 51.0 2299 2306 99 74 28.8 %
9 Comet : 24.5/ 52 47.1 2301 2281 62 96 44.2 %
10 Gromit3 : 24.5/ 52 47.1 2301 2281 79 96 25.0 %
11 Gromit2 : 21.5/ 52 41.3 2304 2243 89 88 21.2 %
12 Francesca : 18.5/ 52 35.6 2307 2204 102 82 17.3 %
13 Yace : 18.5/ 52 35.6 2307 2204 87 82 28.8 %
14 ZChess : 18.5/ 52 35.6 2307 2204 108 82 13.5 %
There does appear to be some increase in draw percentage with strength, but it
is not too striking.
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