Author: Kurt Utzinger
Date: 23:15:55 02/29/04
Go up one level in this thread
On February 29, 2004 at 23:33:43, Derek Paquette wrote:
>Hi folks, i've been busy tweeking my Shredder 8 to try and find something
>stronger, and I have,
>
>I had a quick 26 game tournament on my computer,
>blitz 15min
>opening DB : nunn
>
>Shredder 8 (time stamp) 14.5/26
>Shredder 8 (default) 11.5/26
>
>
>Now this is only a small tournament, and there are always skeptics, but nothing
>can refute my new new chessbase network rating of 2633, on an athlon 1700, there
>are guys with duals that are equal to mine in rating.
>I have used the standard out of the box book for shredder 8,
>this setting is absolutely wonderful, and I'm sure you'll all notice its
>strength, i have not tested it in 3 minute blitz games or anything extremely
>fast as I don't think the added time usage will help much in these cases,
>
>
>But for longer blitz and tournament time controls, especially on a dual system,
>i think its performance will increase exponentially. These settings take the
>opposite of what Shredder attack1.2dp5 had, where that setting on Shredder 7.04
>would have the program pushing the pawns to the end of the board at all costs, i
>find that didn't work with S8, and so now using these parameters it has a more
>cohesive attack,
>
>The settings I changed are the following
>Bishop = 101
>Pawn = 101
>Pawn(endgame) = 101
>King Safety = 95
>Center Control = 105
>Pawn Structure = 102
>pawn Structure(endgame) = 102
>Passed pawns = 103
>Passed pawns(endgame) = 103
>Bishop Pair = 102
>Bishop Pair (endgame) = 102
>Time Usage = 150
>
>If anyone wants an email of the games let me know, and if anyone has any ideas
>let me know :)
>derek_m_p@hotmail.com
Hi Derek
Don't you think yourself that your short match does not prove
anything at all? And to play version Y vs version X of the same
program is usually a bad way to find out which is the stronger one.
I can only repeat what I have written dozens of times already:
Some years ago I had a CM8-setting that won all matches vs others
CM9-personalities but this "very best setting" did comparatively
worse vs other programs. And since then I never let play two versions
of the same program against each other. And as far as statistical
value of your match is concerned, I would like to copy a message
from Christophe Théron he once posted here:
"I personally use the following tables. Study them and you will quickly
understand that the number of games needed to draw a reasonable conclusion
exceeds what common sense believes. Common sense sucks on this matter, don't
trust your feelings.
Explanations:
1) I know that assuming 1/3 chances for wins, draws and losses is not correct,
but I think it's close enough to reality and does not invalidate the reliability
of these tables.
2) How to read the tables: for example, if you want 90 % reliability in your
conclusions and have played 10 games, then you must assume a +/-20 % error
margin
in the winning percentage of the winner (which translate to a +/-140 elo margin
of error). So if program A beats program B by 65 % in a 10 games match, then you
cannot even tell which program is better. Play more games.
3) These tables should be taken with a statistical grain of salt. So if you
don't understand the concept of margin of error, reliability percentage of a
result and so on, just forget about them and go back to tic-tac-toe. ;)
Reliability of chess matches
(assuming each opponent has 1/3 chances to win, 1/3 to loose and 1/3 to draw)
90 % confidence
Games %err+/- elo+/-
10 20 140pts
20 15 105pts
25 14 98pts
30 12 63pts
40 10 70pts
50 9 56pts
100 6.5 35pts
200 4.72 33pts
400 3.34 23pts
600 2.66 19pts
800 2.39 17pts
1000 2.12 15pts
1200 2.00 14pts
1400 1.81 13pts
1600 1.66 12pts
80 % confidence
Games %err+/- elo+/-
10 15 105pts
20 11 77pts
25 10 70pts
30 9 63pts
40 8 56pts
50 7 49pts
100 5.0 35pts
200 3.75 26pts
400 2.60 18pts
600 2.15 15pts
800 1.86 13pts
1000 1.66 12pts
1200 1.46 10pts
1400 1.40 10pts
1600 1.34 9pts
70 % confidence
Games %err+/- elo+/-
10 15 105pts
20 10 70pts
25 8 56pts
30 8 56pts
40 6.3 44pts
50 6.0 42pts
100 4.0 28pts
200 3.0 21pts
400 2.2 15pts
600 1.7 12pts
800 1.5 11pts
1000 1.3 9pts
1200 1.24 9pts
1400 1.14 8pts
1600 1.04 7pts"
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