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Subject: Re: Winning / Drawing behavior

Author: blass uri

Date: 13:31:21 12/10/98

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On December 10, 1998 at 15:02:46, blass uri wrote:

>On December 10, 1998 at 14:35:36, Timothy J. Frohlick wrote:
>
>>On December 10, 1998 at 14:22:13, James T. Walker wrote:
>>
>>>Here is game 11 of my 12 game match between Junior 5.0 & Chessmaster 6000.
>>>
>>>Game #    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11    Total
>>>Junior5   0   .5    0   .5    0   .5    0    1    0    1    0     3.5
>>>CM6000    1   .5    1   .5    1   .5    1    0    1    0    1     7.5
>>>
>>>[Event "12 Game Match"]
>>>[Time "40/90"]
>>>[Date "1998.12.09"]
>>>[Round "11"]
>>>[White "Chessmaster,K6-2-350/64Meg"]
>>>[Black "Junior 5.0,PII-333-64Meg"]
>>>[Result "1-0"]
>>>
>>>1. d4 Nf6
>>>2. c4 e6
>>>3. Nc3 Bb4
>>>4. Nf3 d5
>>>5. cxd5 exd5
>>>6. Bg5 Nbd7
>>>7. e3 c5
>>>8. Bd3 Qa5
>>>9. Qc2 c4
>>>10. Bf5 O-O
>>>11. O-O Re8
>>>12. a3 Bxc3
>>>13. Qxc3 Qxc3
>>>14. bxc3 Ne4
>>>15. Bxe4 dxe4
>>>16. Nd2 Nb6
>>>17. Rfb1 f6
>>>18. Bf4 Re6
>>>19. Rb5 Bd7
>>>20. Rb2 Kf8
>>>21. Bg3 Ke8
>>>22. a4 Bxa4
>>>23. Bc7 Nd5
>>>24. Rxb7 Bc6
>>>25. Rb8+ Rxb8
>>>26. Bxb8 Bb5
>>>27. Rc1 Re7
>>>28. f3 exf3
>>>29. e4 Rb7
>>>30. Bg3 Nb6
>>>31. gxf3 Na4
>>>32. e5 fxe5
>>>33. Bxe5 g6
>>>34. Ne4 Kd8
>>>35. Bf6+ Kc7
>>>36. d5 a6
>>>37. Rb1 Bc6
>>>38. Be5+ Kd8
>>>39. Ra1 Bb5
>>>40. Bf6+ Kc7
>>>41. Bd4 Kd8
>>>42. Ra2 Rf7
>>>43. Bf6+ Kd7
>>>44. Kf2 Nb6
>>>45. Rd2 Nc8
>>>46. Be5 Ne7
>>>47. d6 Nf5
>>>48. Ng5 Rf8
>>>49. Nxh7 Rd8
>>>50. Bf4 Bc6
>>>51. h3 Kc8
>>>52. Nf6 Bb5
>>>53. Rd1 Bc6
>>>54. Be5 Bb5
>>>55. Ne4 Rf8
>>>56. Nc5 Rf7
>>>57. Ra1 Rh7
>>>58. d7+ Rxd7
>>>59. Nxd7 Kxd7
>>>60. Rg1 Ke6
>>>61. Bc7 Kf7
>>>62. Rg4 Ne7
>>>63. h4 Nd5
>>>64. Ba5 Kf6
>>>65. Ke2 Bd7
>>>66. Rd4 Ke6
>>>67. Kd2 Bb5
>>>68. Bd8 Nf6
>>>69. Bxf6 Kxf6
>>>70. Rd6+ Kg7
>>>71. Ke3 Kh6
>>>72. Kf4 Kh5
>>>73. Rd8 Kh6
>>>74. Ra8 Ba4
>>>75. Rxa6 Bc2
>>>76. Ra8 Bd3
>>>77. Rh8+ Kg7
>>>78. Rd8 Be2
>>>79. Rd2 Bf1
>>>80. Kg5 Bd3
>>>81. f4 Kf7
>>>82. Ra2 Be4
>>>83. Ra7+ Kg8
>>>84. Kf6 Kh8
>>>85. Rg7 Bc2
>>>86. Rxg6 Bxg6
>>>87. Kxg6 Kg8
>>>88. h5 Kf8
>>>89. h6 Ke7
>>>90. f5 Kd6
>>>91. h7 Kd5
>>>92. h8=Q Ke4
>>>93. Qd4+  1-0
>>>Resigned
>>>
>>In reply to Mr. Walker,
>>
>>I noticed that Junior 5.0 on the Pentium 333Mhz is either winning or losing and
>>there are no draws.  Does this mean that its' play is optimized for a Pentium
>>and not for an AMD K-6?  You would think that the 350Mhz K-6 would be 30% faster
>>than the Pentium as we have all heard.  I don't think that it works that way.
>>For your second series of games you should play the AMD K-6 350 against a
>>Pentium 400 and see what happens.
>>
>>
>>Respectfully,
>>
>>Tim Frohlick
>I remember that against chessmaster5500 Junior did 3:3 with pentium333Mh
>and won 4:2 with AMD K-6
>so it is only a question of luck
>
>I can also say that the result is not significant statisically
>
>I mean that if you play 20 matches of 12 games between 2 equal programs you can
>expect a result of at least 8.5:3.5 in at least 1 match(I assume probability for
>white to win 40%,probability for draw 30% and probability for black to win 30%).
>
>We need more games to know which program is better without a serious doubt.

If I assume that both programs are equal and the probability of winning for
white is 60% and the probabilities for draw and for black are 20% then my
expection out of 20 matches(everyone of 12 games) is:

chessmaster wins 8.5:3.5 in 0.58 matches
chessmaste wins 9:3 in 0.28 matches
chessmaster wins 9.5:2.5 in 0.12 matches
chessmaster wins 10:2 in 0.04 matches.
0.58+0.28+0.12+0.04>1 so I expect chessmaster to win at least 8.5:3.5 in 1 match
out of 20.

I believe that chessmaster6000 is now the best but we need more data to prove
it.

Uri




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