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Subject: Re: Are you willing to bet on this?

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 20:22:18 03/25/04

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On March 25, 2004 at 23:06:01, Mike Byrne wrote:

>On March 25, 2004 at 21:48:27, ludicrous wrote:
>
>>Are you willing to bet that Chess Genius for Nokia 6600 cellphone will not win a
>>single game, nor even draw one, against Shredder 8 / Deep Fritz 8 with in blitz
>>time settings, in 100,000 games?
>>
>>Just a thought.
>
>It reads like a loaded question - show us the game if you have one.

It would be a bad bet to take.  Why will someone make it?

Win expectancy table:

0 points is 0.5
100 points is 0.359935
200 points is 0.240253
300 points is 0.15098
400 points is 0.0909091
500 points is 0.0532402
600 points is 0.0306534
700 points is 0.0174721
800 points is 0.00990099
900 points is 0.00559197
1000 points is 0.00315231
1100 points is 0.00177512
1200 points is 0.000999001
1300 points is 0.000562025
1400 points is 0.000316128
1500 points is 0.000177796
1600 points is 9.999e-005
1700 points is 5.6231e-005
1800 points is 3.16218e-005
1900 points is 1.77825e-005
2000 points is 9.9999e-006
2100 points is 5.62338e-006 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<  Here we are.

So (for instance) if one of those top dog buggers is 2750 (relatively speaking)
then the phone thingy would only have to be 650 Elo to get even money.

Now, things do break down in the tails.  But the math does not support a total
blanking.



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