Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 20:22:18 03/25/04
Go up one level in this thread
On March 25, 2004 at 23:06:01, Mike Byrne wrote: >On March 25, 2004 at 21:48:27, ludicrous wrote: > >>Are you willing to bet that Chess Genius for Nokia 6600 cellphone will not win a >>single game, nor even draw one, against Shredder 8 / Deep Fritz 8 with in blitz >>time settings, in 100,000 games? >> >>Just a thought. > >It reads like a loaded question - show us the game if you have one. It would be a bad bet to take. Why will someone make it? Win expectancy table: 0 points is 0.5 100 points is 0.359935 200 points is 0.240253 300 points is 0.15098 400 points is 0.0909091 500 points is 0.0532402 600 points is 0.0306534 700 points is 0.0174721 800 points is 0.00990099 900 points is 0.00559197 1000 points is 0.00315231 1100 points is 0.00177512 1200 points is 0.000999001 1300 points is 0.000562025 1400 points is 0.000316128 1500 points is 0.000177796 1600 points is 9.999e-005 1700 points is 5.6231e-005 1800 points is 3.16218e-005 1900 points is 1.77825e-005 2000 points is 9.9999e-006 2100 points is 5.62338e-006 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Here we are. So (for instance) if one of those top dog buggers is 2750 (relatively speaking) then the phone thingy would only have to be 650 Elo to get even money. Now, things do break down in the tails. But the math does not support a total blanking.
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