Author: Joachim Rang
Date: 05:58:29 03/26/04
Go up one level in this thread
On March 26, 2004 at 08:33:11, Slater Wold wrote: >On March 25, 2004 at 23:22:18, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On March 25, 2004 at 23:06:01, Mike Byrne wrote: >> >>>On March 25, 2004 at 21:48:27, ludicrous wrote: >>> >>>>Are you willing to bet that Chess Genius for Nokia 6600 cellphone will not win a >>>>single game, nor even draw one, against Shredder 8 / Deep Fritz 8 with in blitz >>>>time settings, in 100,000 games? >>>> >>>>Just a thought. >>> >>>It reads like a loaded question - show us the game if you have one. >> >>It would be a bad bet to take. Why will someone make it? >> >>Win expectancy table: >> >>0 points is 0.5 >>100 points is 0.359935 >>200 points is 0.240253 >>300 points is 0.15098 >>400 points is 0.0909091 >>500 points is 0.0532402 >>600 points is 0.0306534 >>700 points is 0.0174721 >>800 points is 0.00990099 >>900 points is 0.00559197 >>1000 points is 0.00315231 >>1100 points is 0.00177512 >>1200 points is 0.000999001 >>1300 points is 0.000562025 >>1400 points is 0.000316128 >>1500 points is 0.000177796 >>1600 points is 9.999e-005 >>1700 points is 5.6231e-005 >>1800 points is 3.16218e-005 >>1900 points is 1.77825e-005 >>2000 points is 9.9999e-006 >>2100 points is 5.62338e-006 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Here we are. >> >>So (for instance) if one of those top dog buggers is 2750 (relatively speaking) >>then the phone thingy would only have to be 650 Elo to get even money. >> >>Now, things do break down in the tails. But the math does not support a total >>blanking. > >650 for even money, eh? > >Would you put $100 on a 1,000 Elo MAN to get at least 1 draw with 2750 computer, >in 100,000 games? definitely! After 99.999 Games his rating will have mucht improved (if he is still alive) :-) regards Joachim
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