Author: Uri Blass
Date: 07:01:24 03/26/04
Go up one level in this thread
On March 26, 2004 at 08:58:29, Joachim Rang wrote: >On March 26, 2004 at 08:33:11, Slater Wold wrote: > >>On March 25, 2004 at 23:22:18, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>On March 25, 2004 at 23:06:01, Mike Byrne wrote: >>> >>>>On March 25, 2004 at 21:48:27, ludicrous wrote: >>>> >>>>>Are you willing to bet that Chess Genius for Nokia 6600 cellphone will not win a >>>>>single game, nor even draw one, against Shredder 8 / Deep Fritz 8 with in blitz >>>>>time settings, in 100,000 games? >>>>> >>>>>Just a thought. >>>> >>>>It reads like a loaded question - show us the game if you have one. >>> >>>It would be a bad bet to take. Why will someone make it? >>> >>>Win expectancy table: >>> >>>0 points is 0.5 >>>100 points is 0.359935 >>>200 points is 0.240253 >>>300 points is 0.15098 >>>400 points is 0.0909091 >>>500 points is 0.0532402 >>>600 points is 0.0306534 >>>700 points is 0.0174721 >>>800 points is 0.00990099 >>>900 points is 0.00559197 >>>1000 points is 0.00315231 >>>1100 points is 0.00177512 >>>1200 points is 0.000999001 >>>1300 points is 0.000562025 >>>1400 points is 0.000316128 >>>1500 points is 0.000177796 >>>1600 points is 9.999e-005 >>>1700 points is 5.6231e-005 >>>1800 points is 3.16218e-005 >>>1900 points is 1.77825e-005 >>>2000 points is 9.9999e-006 >>>2100 points is 5.62338e-006 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Here we are. >>> >>>So (for instance) if one of those top dog buggers is 2750 (relatively speaking) >>>then the phone thingy would only have to be 650 Elo to get even money. >>> >>>Now, things do break down in the tails. But the math does not support a total >>>blanking. >> >>650 for even money, eh? >> >>Would you put $100 on a 1,000 Elo MAN to get at least 1 draw with 2750 computer, >>in 100,000 games? > > >definitely! After 99.999 Games his rating will have mucht improved (if he is >still alive) :-) > >regards Joachim Ok let ask it differently. what about computer make a simultan against 100,000 humans with rating of 1000? The rating difference will be probably less than 800 elo because the computer is going to be 100,000 times slower. What is the result that you expect? What about computer that is playing simultan against 100,000 beginners that it is the first game that they play? I expect result of 100,000-0 in that case. Uri
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