Author: Uri Blass
Date: 13:16:15 05/24/04
Go up one level in this thread
On May 24, 2004 at 16:04:23, Peter McKenzie wrote: >On May 24, 2004 at 14:32:27, Mark Young wrote: > >>On May 24, 2004 at 12:06:46, Slater Wold wrote: >> >>>In a thread below, there is a post about Blargh, ICCs top computer. It has won >>>60% of its games at standard time controls, and only lost 16% in almost 3,000 >>>games! >>> >>>I am interested to know the OoO (opinion of outcome) of EVERYONE at the >>>following experiment, I will be in contact with the operator of Blargh, and will >>>try to set this up. >>> >>>Crafty 19.13 on an AMD FX53 (64-bit) vs Shredder 8 on a Dual Opteron 2.2Ghz >>>(32-bit) >>> >>>10 game match. 120/0. >>> >>>Opinions? >> >>This experiment I am sure has been done many times before. The hardware is not >>really relevant since crafty has the disadvantage. On equal hardware Shredder >>scores 70 to 75 percent above Crafty across all time controls I have tested. >> >>This is a short match, but a score of 7-3 for Shredder would be the best Crafty >>could hope for in this match up. > >I would say that if Crafty's expected score against Shredder in around 25-30% >then in a 10 game match there is still a reasonable chance of getting a 50% >score. Someone else can probably give the exact probability but I'd guess it is >at least 10%, in which case it certainly seems worth 'hoping for'. > >cheers, >Peter We need to know the probability for draw and the probability for a win for white to calculate. If we assume that white has 80% chances to win and 20% to draw in case that white is shredder when it is 100% draw in case that white is Crafty then the expected result is 7-3 but the probability for 5-5 is 0.2^5 that is very small(0.032%). If we assume 70% for shredder 30% for crafty in every game then the probability for 5-5 is 0.7^5*0.3^5*10!/(5!^2) and it is more than 10%. Uri
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