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Subject: Re: ELO variance

Author: Andrew Wagner

Date: 13:39:38 05/25/04

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On May 25, 2004 at 15:49:22, Bas Hamstra wrote:

>Supposed you played a huge automated tournament, and ratings were automatically
>calculated (like in Arena) and displayed for all participants. Then, would it be
>possible to derive/calculate the sigma, 2*sigma, 3*sigma rating
>rating-intervals? If so how?
>
>
>
>Ciao,
>
>Bas.

Hi. I'm not sure what you mean by 2*sigma and 3*sigma. The are not statistically
significant, so far as I know. Variance is sigma^2 (i.e. sigma * sigma). The
formula for this is: sum((x - average)^2)/N. So, let's take a few ratings for an
example:
2400
2432
2414
2443

The average is 2422.25. Therefore, we have (22.25^2) + (9.75^2) + (8.25^2) +
(19.75^2) in the numerator. That's 1048.25. And our N here is 4 because we have
4 ratings, so our answer is 1048.25/4 or 262. That's the variance. Taking the
square root, we get 16.2, which is sigma (standard deviation). Hope that helps.
Andrew



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