Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: ELO interval and confidence levels

Author: Dieter Buerssner

Date: 14:05:52 05/28/04

Go up one level in this thread


Bas, I fear Elostat error margins are not always reliable. Peter Fendrich and me
had some discussion here before, and we looked at some extreme results. Elostat
error margins seemed wrong.  From my memory: we compared something like 1010-990
under 2 different conditions. Once the better engine won 20 games and 1980
draws, and once 1010 wins and 990 losses, no draws. At least in one of those
cases, the error margins reported by Elostat were rather suspicious.

Regards,
Dieter



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.