Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 18:27:16 05/28/04
Go up one level in this thread
On May 28, 2004 at 19:52:41, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote: >On May 28, 2004 at 19:22:20, Peter Berger wrote: > >>Isn't this a similar situation Sjeng faces itself? > >Yes. (But I'm not the one claiming to be a title candidate here) > >>As you stated, there _were_ a few of the top professionals competing in the >CCTs in the past, and Crafty was quite competitive. > >And yet they don't believe in your chances at the WCCC - doesn't >this make you think? I am guessing that the latest professional programs are not NUMA ready yet, though probably Deep Sjeng is. I am guessing that if Dr. Hyatt gets an 8 CPU 64 bit machine, his program could easily win (not to be confused with win easily). It would be competitive on a dual, with maybe a 15% chance of winning (SWAG). The faster the hardware, the better crafty does. I think (compared to others) crafty scales better. That would indicate better algorithms and inferior microoptimization. Also, the other deep programs do not seem to benefit nearly so much from multiple CPUs (though they may have possibly ironed this out). On the other hand, I suspect that if Deep Sjeng got the same 8 CPU machine, then it would win. What sort of hardware are you bringing to the party? Here is my basic estimate [read 'guess'] for equal hardware: Shredder [baseline] Fritz -30 Elo Junior -35 Elo Deep Sjeng -80 Elo (I am assuming some improvements because you are a clever guy) Falcon -100 Elo (real wild guess, based on figures I have seen here and there) Crafty -125 Elo (Crafty 19.12 and 19.13 are huge improvements on the predecessors) Diep -125 Elo (just a wild guess, since I have very little data, perhaps Vincent can improve my estimate) From here down, probably not much real chance to win, unless breakthroughs have been made and they authors were holding back. Movei ParSOS The Crazy Bishop IsiChess Jonny FIBChess (never heard of this one) Now, Shredder Fritz and Junior might come on powerful hardware (e.g. 2.4 GHz AMD 64 bit dual) but I am guessing that would translate to about 3 GHz throughput. [All the measurements I have seen showed them scaling very poorly] For Shredder, I think his preparation is probably superior, because the strength difference in his program alone would not explain the dominance in WMCCC type contests. So, realistically, we should add another 50 Elo for the smarts of the Shredder team. So Crafty would have to overcome about 175 Elo to be evenly matched against Shredder in my crude model. So, with an 8-way box he would have about .65*2.4*8=12.5 GHz (let's say 12). That would be about 4 times faster than Shredder, Fritz or Junior. With +70 Elo per doubling, that would be 140 Elo. So crafty would have a real shot at it, even against Shredder. Of course, my wild extrapolations, based on shaky guesses, are standing on swamp mud. Any in the top group has a realistic shot. Vincent may someday work out the kinks that plague every contest he ever enters. Maybe Falcon really is on a par with Shredder. None of us know, because we don't have a copy. But at any rate, it will be fun to watch. Too bad there is no Chess Tiger. I want to see what Christophe's new toy can do. I know he has been doing major surgery.
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