Author: Djordje Vidanovic
Date: 06:53:59 05/29/04
Go up one level in this thread
On May 28, 2004 at 21:27:16, Dann Corbit wrote: >On May 28, 2004 at 19:52:41, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote: > >>On May 28, 2004 at 19:22:20, Peter Berger wrote: >> >>>Isn't this a similar situation Sjeng faces itself? >> >>Yes. (But I'm not the one claiming to be a title candidate here) >> >>>As you stated, there _were_ a few of the top professionals competing in the >CCTs in the past, and Crafty was quite competitive. >> >>And yet they don't believe in your chances at the WCCC - doesn't >>this make you think? > >I am guessing that the latest professional programs are not NUMA ready yet, >though probably Deep Sjeng is. > >I am guessing that if Dr. Hyatt gets an 8 CPU 64 bit machine, his program could >easily win (not to be confused with win easily). It would be competitive on a >dual, with maybe a 15% chance of winning (SWAG). > >The faster the hardware, the better crafty does. I think (compared to others) >crafty scales better. That would indicate better algorithms and inferior >microoptimization. Also, the other deep programs do not seem to benefit nearly >so much from multiple CPUs (though they may have possibly ironed this out). > >On the other hand, I suspect that if Deep Sjeng got the same 8 CPU machine, then >it would win. > >What sort of hardware are you bringing to the party? > >Here is my basic estimate [read 'guess'] for equal hardware: > >Shredder [baseline] >Fritz -30 Elo >Junior -35 Elo >Deep Sjeng -80 Elo (I am assuming some improvements because you are a clever >guy) >Falcon -100 Elo (real wild guess, based on figures I have seen here and there) >Crafty -125 Elo (Crafty 19.12 and 19.13 are huge improvements on the >predecessors) >Diep -125 Elo (just a wild guess, since I have very little data, perhaps Vincent >can improve my estimate) > >From here down, probably not much real chance to win, unless breakthroughs have >been made and they authors were holding back. >Movei >ParSOS >The Crazy Bishop >IsiChess >Jonny >FIBChess (never heard of this one) > >Now, Shredder Fritz and Junior might come on powerful hardware (e.g. 2.4 GHz AMD >64 bit dual) but I am guessing that would translate to about 3 GHz throughput. >[All the measurements I have seen showed them scaling very poorly] > >For Shredder, I think his preparation is probably superior, because the strength >difference in his program alone would not explain the dominance in WMCCC type >contests. So, realistically, we should add another 50 Elo for the smarts of the >Shredder team. > >So Crafty would have to overcome about 175 Elo to be evenly matched against >Shredder in my crude model. So, with an 8-way box he would have about >.65*2.4*8=12.5 GHz (let's say 12). That would be about 4 times faster than >Shredder, Fritz or Junior. With +70 Elo per doubling, that would be 140 Elo. >So crafty would have a real shot at it, even against Shredder. > >Of course, my wild extrapolations, based on shaky guesses, are standing on swamp >mud. > >Any in the top group has a realistic shot. Vincent may someday work out the >kinks that plague every contest he ever enters. Maybe Falcon really is on a par >with Shredder. None of us know, because we don't have a copy. > >But at any rate, it will be fun to watch. > >Too bad there is no Chess Tiger. I want to see what Christophe's new toy can >do. I know he has been doing major surgery. My baseline here would be Junior (for a lot of reasons that I don't wish to discuss for lack of my time and your patience). Shredder -20, Fritz -40 etc. Crafty on a quad opteron should be about -30 which gives it some chance of winning. If SOS comes with good hardware (say a dual Opteron) then I think that Rudolf would have just as good a chance of winning...
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