Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 14:10:43 06/15/04
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On June 15, 2004 at 16:53:16, Peter Fendrich wrote: >On June 15, 2004 at 16:39:20, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On June 15, 2004 at 16:20:45, Peter Fendrich wrote: >> >- snip - > >>>We could in fact invent a much better rating system for chess engines. The ELO >>>system is designed for humans with a sparse number of games and not for hundreds >>>and thousands of games in long matches. But it works. >>>IMHO it's however not very practical with another rating system when the ELO >>>system is the chess rating standard. >> >>There used to be a nice web site by Royal C. Jones on alternative Elo >>calculation methods. I am no longer able to find it. >> >>Here is a C++ program that performs his alternate calculations in a simulation: >>ftp://cap.connx.com/pub/tournament_software/prog10.cpp >> >>Here is the letter where I asked his permission to use the code: >>ftp://cap.connx.com/pub/tournament_software/Re%20Your%20chess%20rating%20systems.txt > >Yes, I think I once got the link from you: >http://ourworld.cs.com/royjones1999/index.htm >I think with another system it could be done even better for chess engines: >- they don't vary their strength during time like humans >- one can easily play a huge number of games > >with use of Bayeesian alg's... I think the best thing about computer modelling is that we do not necessarily need to assume a gaussian curve. We could fit as many models as we like, and then choose the one that turns out to be the best predictor. It is clear than when Elo figures are drastically different (e.g. 1000 Elo) that the model predicts poorly. Even with moderate difference levels (plan an engine against a pool of peer players, play the same engine against a pool of players 100 Elo below, play the engine with both pools combined) you will see unexplained differences. As an example, I am running a contest with about 6000 games played so far. When a large number of games has been played by some engine (e.g. 200 games) then the rating clearly is changed compared to when it had a smaller number of games against tougher competition. The effect becomes pronounced when you see players of very high Elo take on players of very low Elo. The stronger players basically cannot earn any points, no matter what happens.
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