Author: Paul Clarke
Date: 04:55:48 06/24/04
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On June 23, 2004 at 23:06:13, Dann Corbit wrote: >On June 23, 2004 at 22:50:38, Mike Byrne wrote: > >>Do we have now have machines on desktops equal to Deep Blue in strength as Don >>Daily suggested may happen in 10 years or less back in 1999? [snip] >No question about it. >At the half-way point, an 8-way AMD 64 bit box gets a significant chunk of it >(about 10% of Deep Blue's best burst rate IIRC). > >with 5 more doublings, that would give 1.6x Deep Blue's full tilt, max >throughput. Of course that is for bleeding edge. A high-end workstation will >be about on par with Deep Blue, I would think. Five more doublings would be 3.2x Deep Blue, surely? Though expecting five doublings in five years seems optimistic: the doubling period in Moore's Law is usually given as 18 months to two years, so three doublings seems more likely, giving 80% of Deep Blue's peak performance. I've also seen articles suggesting that Moore's Law might finally be running out of steam, as chip designers have started to hit problems with reducing feature size.
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