Author: Vincent Diepeveen
Date: 06:27:02 06/24/04
Go up one level in this thread
On June 24, 2004 at 07:55:48, Paul Clarke wrote: >On June 23, 2004 at 23:06:13, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On June 23, 2004 at 22:50:38, Mike Byrne wrote: >> >>>Do we have now have machines on desktops equal to Deep Blue in strength as Don >>>Daily suggested may happen in 10 years or less back in 1999? >[snip] >>No question about it. >>At the half-way point, an 8-way AMD 64 bit box gets a significant chunk of it >>(about 10% of Deep Blue's best burst rate IIRC). >> >>with 5 more doublings, that would give 1.6x Deep Blue's full tilt, max >>throughput. Of course that is for bleeding edge. A high-end workstation will >>be about on par with Deep Blue, I would think. > >Five more doublings would be 3.2x Deep Blue, surely? Though expecting five >doublings in five years seems optimistic: the doubling period in Moore's Law is >usually given as 18 months to two years, so three doublings seems more likely, >giving 80% of Deep Blue's peak performance. I've also seen articles suggesting >that Moore's Law might finally be running out of steam, as chip designers have >started to hit problems with reducing feature size. Nah 500Mhz machine will do fine.
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