Author: Rémi Coulom

Date: 07:07:36 07/17/04

Hi, I have made a new tool to estimate the likelihood that one program is better than another, based on game results against the same opponents. You can download it here: http://remi.coulom.free.fr/WhoIsBest.zip I have no evidence, but I expect its results to be more satisfactory than any result based on Elo theory. This tool was very useful to me during the preparation of the WCCC, to test differences between versions of TCB. I hope some of you will find it useful too. Here is a sample output of MonteCarlo.exe: This program evaluates the likelihood that program A is better than program B, based on the result of two matches played against the same opponent (or set of opponents). The number of games played in each of these matches does not have to be the same. If playing against a set of opponents, the proportion of each opponent should be the same in each match. The likelihood is estimated by Bayesian inference, assuming an uniform prior distribution of the probabilites of losing and winning. The resulting integral is estimated with a Monte-Carlo method. It may take a long time to converge when the number of games is large (>100). The computation can be interrupted at any time with Ctrl-C. A wins = 3 A losses = 4 A draws = 5 B wins = 6 B losses = 7 B draws = 8 P(A>B) = 0.459296 (127000000 Iterations) Rémi

- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results
**Joachim Rang***11:21:00 07/17/04*- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results
**Rémi Coulom***13:28:26 07/17/04*- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results
**Joachim Rang***13:43:56 07/17/04*- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results
**Rémi Coulom***11:41:23 07/18/04*

- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results

- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results
- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results
**Rémi Coulom***11:38:16 07/17/04*- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results
**Robin Smith***12:52:04 07/17/04*- Ignore post above, Great idea! would be interested in a faster version
**Robin Smith***12:53:04 07/17/04*- Re: Ignore post above, Great idea! would be interested in a faster version
**Russell Reagan***14:35:50 07/17/04*- Re: Ignore post above, Great idea! would be interested in a faster version
**Rémi Coulom***23:49:09 07/17/04*

- Re: Ignore post above, Great idea! would be interested in a faster version

- Re: Ignore post above, Great idea! would be interested in a faster version

- Ignore post above, Great idea! would be interested in a faster version

- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results

- Re: New tool to estimate the statistical significance of match results

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