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Subject: Re: Engines valutation question

Author: Álvaro Begué

Date: 09:12:16 08/03/04

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On August 03, 2004 at 04:54:11, morphy wrote:

>Why the valutation is always referred to the material advantage (where a pawn in
>more is the unit) and we can't have a valutation in tems of percentage of
>probability for winning and drawing?

The right score to use is the expected value of the game result. Maximizing the
expected value of a utility function is actually the only possible rational
behaviour under a very sensible definition of "rational". We can fix the scores
of winning and losing to 1 and 0 (in a utility function, an affine
transformation with positive slope doesn't alter the decisions taken by
maximization of expected value). The value for drawing is typically 0.5, but
this is not always the case. Imagine you are playing a 6-game match and after 5
games you are winning 3-2. In this case, the value of a draw is 1 because it is
enough to win the match.

If we only consider the case were the value of a draw is 0.5, then the material
advantage is a reasonable approach to evaluation. To make a model that predicts
a result between 0 and 1, a good robust method is to combine several evaluation
factors (in our case things like material imbalance, center control, pawn
structure, mobility, king safety, passed pawns...) using a linear combination
and then pass the result through a sigmoid transfer function, like
S(x):=1/(1+exp(-x)). Applying the function at the end can actually be avoided in
real play, because S(x) is a monotonically increasing function, and in
alpha-beta search we are only concerned with how a score compares with another
score.




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