Author: Stephen A. Boak
Date: 00:01:15 08/12/04
Go up one level in this thread
On August 11, 2004 at 08:22:14, Albert Silver wrote: >On August 10, 2004 at 02:27:24, Stephen A. Boak wrote: > >>On August 09, 2004 at 18:38:03, Uri Blass wrote: >> >>>On August 09, 2004 at 17:46:00, stuart taylor wrote: >>> >>>>On August 09, 2004 at 15:33:52, Uri Blass wrote: >>>> >>>>>On August 09, 2004 at 13:49:55, stuart taylor wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>Well, do people atleast agree with me on the facts, that there has been no >>>>>>improvement as big as Shredder 7.04 for almost 2 years now, and no percievable >>>>>>overtaking of it? >>>>>>S.Taylor >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>I do not agree with this descreption of the facts. >>>>>A lot of programmers did a bigger improvement. >>>>> >>>>>The improvement in thinker in the last 2 years is clearly more impressive for me >>>>>than the improvement in Shredder. >>>>> >>>>>I suspect that a lot of programmers are in their way to overtake Shredder7.04 >>>>>and I will not be surprised if some of them will even give a free program that >>>>>is significantly stronger than shredder7.04. >>>>> >>>>>Uri >>>> >>>>Do you mean improvement in thinking? (or a program named "thinker"?) >>> >>>A program named thinker. >>> >>>> >>>>So you are disagreeing with ONE of my points, that there have been bigger >>>>improvements, but not that something has actually overtaken Shredder 7.04 in 2 >>>>years.(?) >>>> >>>>And you are predicting that by the end of this year there will be a significant >>>>increase in playing level and success from somewhere? >>>>S.Taylor >>> >>>I do not know much about the commercial programs and the improvement that I see >>>is with the free programs. >>> >>>2-3 years ago a program like resp0.14 or Delfi2.0 could become a champion of new >>>engines in WBEC >>>Today a program at that level is nothing impressive and there are new programs >>>like Naum that are probably more than 200 elo better than resp0.14 or delfi2.0. >>> >>>If this tendency continue in 2 years the first program that people release will >>>be better than shredder8. >>> >>>Uri >> >>:) lol > > >:-)))) Well, let's see. My first rating was 1580. My second rating a year later >was 1810. If I had followed that same rate from the beginning, then in 4 years >I'd have been of strong grandmaster strength, and in 5 years I'd have been the >world's best player. Damn, I must have been studying the wrong things.... :-P > > Albert _______________ :-)))) I do not agree with this descreption of the facts. A lot of players did a bigger improvement. The improvement in some other players in the last 2 years is clearly more impressive for me than the improvement in Albert. I suspect that a lot of players are in their way to overtake 'Albert-2004' and I will not be surprised if some of them will even give a amateur performance that is significantly stronger than 'Albert-2004'. _______________ :-)))) Cuidado, Alberto. Do not confuse facts with theory. _______________ :-)))) Your analogy is also flawed in other ways: Uri discusses 'first releases' but a single player such as you only has a single 'starting rating', i.e. 'first release'. Later ratings, after making 'improvements', do not count. _______________ :-)))) Here's a better analogy: 4 poor brothers, each born 3 years after the previous youngest, visit a baseball field for the first time. The 1-year-old picks up a baseball and heaves it for the first time to a distance of 1 foot. His 4-year-old brother picks up the baseball and tosses it for the first time to a distance of 10 feet. The 7-year-old picks up the baseball and flings it for the first time to a distance of 100 feet. According to 'tendency' theory: If this tendency continue the next brother (10-year-old) will pick up the baseball and throw it for the first time to a distance of 1,000 feet (nearly 1/5 of a mile)! Good thing there are not 5 brothers in the family. :) _______________ :-)))) Another 'tendency' analogy: I throw a baseball vertically into the air. After 2 seconds, it is 100 ft above me. If this tendency continue (and if my aim is good), after 10 months the baseball will have traveled 250,000 miles and will hit the moon. The problem is, I always throw my baseball with a wicked curve--up to 180 degrees bend. This is entirely unintentional. The result is, however, that it never finishes where I aimed. My ability to aim is limited, at best. Genes will tell ... my father can do no better. _______________ :-)))) Tendency of tendency analogy: If this tendency continue ... all theories will be proven to QED level. Then, facts will finally be unnecessary. _______________ --Steve :)
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