Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 12:00:43 08/30/04
Go up one level in this thread
On August 30, 2004 at 14:57:35, Ingo Bauer wrote: >On August 30, 2004 at 14:51:01, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On August 30, 2004 at 13:51:48, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On August 30, 2004 at 12:24:54, Volker Böhm wrote: >>> >>>>On August 30, 2004 at 10:02:54, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>> >>>>>On August 30, 2004 at 08:30:34, Kurt Utzinger wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On August 30, 2004 at 08:12:52, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>Eine FPGA-Karte untersucht momentan ca. 3 Millionen Positionen/Sekunde. 16 >>>>>>>Karten machen daher theoretisch 48 MPos/sec. (Donninger) >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Jouni >>>>>> >>>>>> If Hydra made 48 Mpos/sec this again proves (in comparison >>>>>> with the 2 Mpos/sec on Quad-Opteron server with 4 CPU's of >>>>>> Shredder) that the number of pos/sec can't be taken as a >>>>>> reliable value for the goodness of a chess program. It's >>>>>> of course simply impossible to compare apples and organes. >>>>>> Kurt [http://www.utzingerk.com] >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Don't forget that Hydra ripped Shredder's head off. So the NPS _might_ be >>>>>significant here... >>>> >>>>Didn´t I´ve heard you saying that 10 games are not enough to draw a >>>>statistically significant conclusion on the playing strength? >>>> >>>>Greetings Volker >>> >>> >>>With two _close_ opponents, correct. But if one is seriously stronger, as hydra >>>appeared to be, 10 games is plenty. >> >>We do not know if hydra is seriously stronger. >> >>You cannot start by assuming that hydra is significantly stronger when this is >>the question. >> >>If you see 10-0 you can say based on the result that Hydra is significantly >>stronger but when you see 5.5-2.5 you cannot claim it based on the result and >>you only can say that you do not know if it is significantly stronger based on >>the result. > >Just some facts: > >10 +3 =7 -0 65.0% TP = +107 Elo 68%->[+70,+206] 95%->[+34,+351] > >Is if 107 Elo "seriously or significantly" stronger? Don't forget the Cadaques experiment. At one point it was a total blowout for Junior, and then Fritz knocked Junior silly. A small sequence can have a lot of error in many ways. It is also possible that the points of the opponent were a freak accident. So it might be 500 Elo stronger. Until 30 games have been played, the statisical significance is insignificant. Chances are good that Hydra is very strong. But we do not have enough data to really know it.
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