Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 07:54:23 08/31/04
Go up one level in this thread
On August 31, 2004 at 01:18:46, Jouni Uski wrote: >On August 30, 2004 at 16:57:50, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On August 30, 2004 at 16:39:22, Mark Young wrote: >> >>>On August 30, 2004 at 15:33:19, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>> >>>>On August 30, 2004 at 14:51:01, Uri Blass wrote: >>>> >>>>>On August 30, 2004 at 13:51:48, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On August 30, 2004 at 12:24:54, Volker Böhm wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On August 30, 2004 at 10:02:54, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>On August 30, 2004 at 08:30:34, Kurt Utzinger wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>On August 30, 2004 at 08:12:52, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>Eine FPGA-Karte untersucht momentan ca. 3 Millionen Positionen/Sekunde. 16 >>>>>>>>>>Karten machen daher theoretisch 48 MPos/sec. (Donninger) >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>Jouni >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> If Hydra made 48 Mpos/sec this again proves (in comparison >>>>>>>>> with the 2 Mpos/sec on Quad-Opteron server with 4 CPU's of >>>>>>>>> Shredder) that the number of pos/sec can't be taken as a >>>>>>>>> reliable value for the goodness of a chess program. It's >>>>>>>>> of course simply impossible to compare apples and organes. >>>>>>>>> Kurt [http://www.utzingerk.com] >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Don't forget that Hydra ripped Shredder's head off. So the NPS _might_ be >>>>>>>>significant here... >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Didn´t I´ve heard you saying that 10 games are not enough to draw a >>>>>>>statistically significant conclusion on the playing strength? >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Greetings Volker >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>With two _close_ opponents, correct. But if one is seriously stronger, as hydra >>>>>>appeared to be, 10 games is plenty. >>>>> >>>>>We do not know if hydra is seriously stronger. >>>> >>>>We have a pretty good clue that it is. It is over 10x faster, potentially, than >>>>other programs. >>>> >>>>1. I first assume that the programmer / designer is no dummy. >>>> >>>>2. all else being "equal" 10x faster is a _serious_ advantage. >>>> >>>>3. the above two points translate into a signficant strength advantage. >>>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>>You cannot start by assuming that hydra is significantly stronger when this is >>>>>the question. >>>> >>>>With evidence, you can. IE I can certainly assume that Crafty on an 8-way >>>>opteron is significantly stronger than Crafty on my dual xeon. >>>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>>If you see 10-0 you can say based on the result that Hydra is significantly >>>>>stronger but when you see 5.5-2.5 you cannot claim it based on the result and >>>>>you only can say that you do not know if it is significantly stronger based on >>>>>the result. >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>If you only look at the results, maybe or maybe not. But I watched many of the >>>>games with Crafty analyzing. That tells you even more. >>> >>>Common sense should tell us that Hydra is stronger. It should have a big >>>hardware advantage. I think this is your point, and I agree. But I still need >>>more data to be sure. Right now there is only a 1 in 6 chance that Hydra is the >>>stronger program based on the games alone. >> >>Where does "one in six" come from? >> >>IE >> >>1. Hydra is at least 10x faster >> >>2. It won three and drew five if I recall. which is 5.5/8.0. which is right >>at +200 on the Elo scale. >> > >Is it? I think 137 points is enough. Still a lot. > >Jouni 6/8 is 3/4, which is over 200... That was what I was hinting at....
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