Author: KarinsDad
Date: 08:16:54 01/07/99
Go up one level in this thread
On January 07, 1999 at 03:29:25, Bruce Moreland wrote: > >On January 06, 1999 at 16:40:02, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On January 06, 1999 at 03:56:04, Bruce Moreland wrote: >> >>> >>>On January 05, 1999 at 18:34:02, Dann Corbit wrote: >>> >>>>Deep blue is probably 2700-2800. So about 200 points better than the best >>>>programs would be fair. Of course, this is orders of magnitude stronger than >>>>the current programs. Only under very rare circumstances will a 2700 program be >>>>beaten by a 2500 program. >>> >>>Approximately 1/4 of the time by definition. >>?? >>ELO system predicts 1% upsets at 300 points difference. >>How did you arrive at .25? > >The formula I've seen would predict 15% at 300 points. > >It is 1 / (1 + 10 ^ (delta / 400)) > >bruce > > >bruce The original post above stated a 200 point difference (2700 vs. 2500) or about 1/4 (as per the formula), also as stated above.
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