Author: Chris Welty
Date: 00:29:51 10/08/04
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On October 08, 2004 at 01:10:59, Rick Bischoff wrote: >I did some more research on this-- > >We are assuming here that an engine's win percentage follows a binomial >distribution with probability p. meaning that, out of "n" games played (with no >draws), we can expect the engine to win n*p games on average. Right. >3) the interval is then given approximately by: > >phat +/- z(a/2) sqrt ( phat * (1-phat) / n ) > This is usually a pretty good approximation. It's even better if you use it in reverse and calculate the confidence interval for phat from the known null-hypothesis value; in this case the the null-hypothesis is that the engines are equal strength (i.e. win percentage 0.5) and so the confidence interval for phat is z(a/2)+/-sqrt(0.5*0.5/n)
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