Author: Roger D Davis
Date: 16:33:22 10/09/04
Are the Bilbao results likely to be statistically meaningful, or is it just another case of too few games being played to make a statistically meaningful result? Shouldn't the number of games played in a tournament be determined by the anticipated effect size? In other words, if we believe the parties are nearly equal, with one side winning only 55% of the time, then shouldn't that determine the number of rounds? Fewer games and the outcome is statistically likely to be a fluke. We've seen it happen time and time again in comp-comp matches...one side pulls ahead in the first 50 games, only to lose that advantage in the second set of 50 games. And who wants bragging rights to a fluke, even if they did win. Can anyone say whether the results are likely to be meaningful from a statistical point of view given the number of rounds in Bilbao? I don't want to fall into the trap of believing that Bilbao is more meaningful than it really is, or even meaningful at all. Roger
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