Author: Graham Laight
Date: 04:38:13 10/13/04
Go up one level in this thread
Junior's performance in Bilbao was much worse than even I had thought - and now I have the weapon to prove it - the simulator in http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391362 Starting with the assumption that all 3 machines had equal win/draw/loss probablities, I tried different combinations of probabilities to produce the kind of results that Hydra and Fritz got (3.5/4). I found that setting the win probablity to 70%, the draw probability to 20%, and the lose probability to 10% gave a 27.4% probability of producing 3.5 points - which is reasonable. However - the probability for Junior's score (1.5/4) comes out at only 2.02%!!! To those who thought that my remarks about Junior's poor performance were statistically illiterate, I would ask you to run the simulator, and try to come up with win/draw/lose probabilities that give a good chance of the results we saw in Bilbao happening if each computer were equally as good. I await your probability numbers... -g
This page took 0.01 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.