Author: Graham Laight
Date: 03:24:52 10/14/04
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On October 13, 2004 at 18:22:48, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 17:35:57, Graham Laight wrote: > >>Your "truth" is that the top computers are worse than top humans. "Think lower", >>you told me. > >Not quite. You seemed to have an exaggerated expectation for how the computers >would perform. I said "think lower". That doesn't mean that I believe the >computers are way worse than the humans. I just don't believe they are clearly >better yet... Good - this is a step in the right direction! ;-) >>Well - I know you're not going to give me an estimate as to the win/draw/lose >>probabilities of top computers v GMs, so I won't bother to ask - but after the >>work I've done with my simulator today (have you tried it? It's quick and easy >>to run - just follow the 4 easy steps), then if GMs are significantly better >>than computers at chess, I can tell you that Fritz and Hydra getting 7/8 was a >>sensational result. Let me give you reasonably accurate analogies from other >>sports with which you have some familiarity: >> >>1. it's like the 6 stone weakling who has never had a fight before flooring the >>national karate champion >> >>2. it's like a donkey and cart winning the regional drag race evening > >No. In drag racing or karate participants are very "steady". Not so in >computers vs humans at chess. Odd book lines. Good book preparation by the >humans. All serve to significantly skew final results in odd ways... This "steadiness" strongly implies to me that there are big differences in the participants' ability levels (be that engine power, skill, or whatever else) - this is what produces "steadiness". If competitor A has a 95% probability of beating competitor B, the results of games between them will look "steady" to the casual onlooker - wheras if that probability were, say, 50%, the results would look distinctly "unsteady". -g >>-g
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