Author: Graham Laight
Date: 01:50:21 10/15/04
Go up one level in this thread
On October 14, 2004 at 15:19:10, Álvaro Begué wrote: >You really should study some more math. You don't need to do a Montecarlo >simulation for this. You can compute the probabilities explicitly with dynamic >programming, or through generating series (which are the same thing in the end). Thankyou for providing these one off numbers. However - what I have provided at http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391362 is an application with the following features: * GUI interface - easy and intuitive to use * anybody with a web browser (which is everybody at CCC) can use it * up and running in seconds * variable probabilities for win, lose or draw * variable number of games in a tournament That set of features is not bad for a 5kb program that anyone wanting to investigate these probabilities can use instantaneously any time they want to - and can use to learn about how these probabilities vary (sometimes counter-intuitively) with different parameters. I'm sorry that, because a simulation method is used, you have to wait for possibly a second or more to get your results. ;-) -g >0.0 0.00000000 >0.5 0.00000000 >1.0 0.00000001 >1.5 0.00000011 >2.0 0.00000077 >2.5 0.00000454 >3.0 0.00002253 >3.5 0.00009681 >4.0 0.00036645 >4.5 0.00123913 >5.0 0.00378273 >5.5 0.01051276 >6.0 0.02677871 >6.5 0.06286813 >7.0 0.13665717 >7.5 0.27609578 >8.0 0.52012862 >8.5 0.91614381 >9.0 1.51221011 >9.5 2.34364792 >10.0 3.41589083 >10.5 4.68841893 >11.0 6.06640762 >11.5 7.40617128 >12.0 8.53683462 >12.5 9.29480081 >13.0 9.56183965 >13.5 9.29480081 >14.0 8.53683462 >14.5 7.40617128 >15.0 6.06640762 >15.5 4.68841893 >16.0 3.41589083 >16.5 2.34364792 >17.0 1.51221011 >17.5 0.91614381 >18.0 0.52012862 >18.5 0.27609578 >19.0 0.13665717 >19.5 0.06286813 >20.0 0.02677871 >20.5 0.01051276 >21.0 0.00378273 >21.5 0.00123913 >22.0 0.00036645 >22.5 0.00009681 >23.0 0.00002253 >23.5 0.00000454 >24.0 0.00000077 >24.5 0.00000011 >25.0 0.00000001 >25.5 0.00000000 >26.0 0.00000000
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