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Subject: Re: about statistics, and junior in bilbao, for graham laight

Author: martin fierz

Date: 09:08:29 10/16/04

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On October 16, 2004 at 10:29:23, Rick Bischoff wrote:

>Another problem with their analysis is that they assumed equal probabilities no
>matter the opponent.. e.g., if I were in the tournament, the simulator would
>still say hyrda only had a 50% chance to win, even though in reality it is
>closer to 99.99999%.
>
>Regardless, it is unneccesary to use a monte carlo simulator for this incorrect
>task, since you could just use the multinomial distribution and get the answer
>exactly.

sure, but i didn't want to bother calculating the numbers exactly. they would
have differed very little from what the monte carlo simulator would give, and
besides, my whole point in this discussion has nothing to do with the exact
numbers :-)

cheers
  martin



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