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Subject: Re: how not to calculate performance

Author: Stephen A. Boak

Date: 22:10:25 10/23/04

Go up one level in this thread


On October 23, 2004 at 18:47:26, Vincent Lejeune wrote:

>On October 23, 2004 at 16:37:37, Stephen A. Boak wrote:
>
>>On October 22, 2004 at 18:52:13, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On October 22, 2004 at 18:30:34, James T. Walker wrote:
>>>
>>>>On October 22, 2004 at 13:32:57, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>go to the following link
>>>>>
>>>>>http://georgejohn.bcentralhost.com/TCA/perfrate.html
>>>>>
>>>>>enter 1400 for 12 opponents
>>>>>enter 0 for your total score
>>>>>
>>>>>Your performance is 1000 but if you enter 1 to your total score your performance
>>>>>is only 983.
>>>>>
>>>>>It seems that the program in that link assume that when the result is 100% or 0%
>>>>>your performance is 400 elo less that your weakest opponent but when your score
>>>>>is not 100% it has not that limit so they get illogical results.
>>>>>
>>>>>Uri
>>>>
>>>>My take on this is they are using a bad formula or have screwed up the program
>>>>to calculate the Rp.
>>>>The USCF uses Rp=Rc + 400(W-L)/N
>>>
>>>It seems that the USCF does not do it in that way
>>>
>>>They admit that the formula is not correct for players who won all their games
>>>
>>>Note:  In the case of a perfect or zero score the performance rating is
>>>estimated as either 400 points higher or lower, respectively, than the rating of
>>>highest or lowest rated opponent.
>>>
>>>It is probably better to estimate the preformance based on comparison to  the
>>>case that the player did almost perfect score.
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>Dear Uri,
>>What is the *correct* formula for a player who has won (or lost) all his games?
>>:)
>>Regards,
>>--Steve
>
>
>For such a player, the error margin = infinity
>
>the perf = average opp +400 to +infinity



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