Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 10:24:00 10/29/04
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On October 29, 2004 at 12:27:15, Uri Blass wrote: >Let assume that every player play 12 games against 1400 players >I want to give an estimate for the level of the player based on the result after >4 games. > >part of the players who score 0 out of 4 will score more than 0 out of 12 > >A good estimate remain the same in average when you play more games(it becomes >higher for players who do more than expected but also becomes smaller for >players who do less than expected). > >If your estimate based on 0/4 is the same as your estimate in case of 0/12 it >means that players who score 0/4 can only improve their rating after they play >more games and it is not logical. > >The average level of players who score 0/12 is lower than the average level of >players who scored 0/4 because players who scored 0/4 consist also players who >can expect to score results like 1/12. > >Uri A players rating is connected to his expected score. I'd say if he scores 0/4 the best guess we can make on his expected score is 0.25/4, so right between getting nothing and getting a single draw. This is of course because the actual score is descrete while the probability is continuous, he cannot score his expected in that short a match. So assuming he scored 0.25 of 4 against a 1400 player his estimated rating (big error margins of course) would be 930. If he got 0 of 12, his expected score 0.25/12 would give a rating of 731 ELO. Likewise, had he won 4/4 (ie. 3.75/4) he would be rated 1870 and 12/12 would give 2069 ELO. If he wins 100/100 the rating would be 2440, 1000/1000 it would be 2840. So I guess a 1400 player would be expected to draw Kasparov once in abourt 1000 games. -S.
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