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Subject: Re: how not to calculate performance

Author: James T. Walker

Date: 15:40:18 11/03/04

Go up one level in this thread


On November 02, 2004 at 19:17:19, Sune Fischer wrote:

>On November 02, 2004 at 16:44:17, James T. Walker wrote:
>
>>On November 02, 2004 at 08:22:10, Sune Fischer wrote:
>>
>>>On November 02, 2004 at 07:42:24, James T. Walker wrote:
>>>
>>>>Just plot a graph with 999 data points all with a value of zero.  Then plot
>>>>another graph of 1000 data points  all with a value of zero.  Then compare the
>>>>difference.
>>>>Jim
>>>
>>>Ratings can become negative, so zero is not the lowest rating possible you can
>>>get. Zero is actually an arbitrary number you just picked out of nowhere, you
>>>might as well have said -1000.
>>>
>>>The proof of this is easy, even without knowing the formula. Just consider the
>>>1400 guy and someone who is 400 ELO weaker, then consider one that is 400 ELO
>>>weaker than him and so on, you quickly get negative ratings.
>>>
>>>I don't know what the lowest rating is, even if you assume perfectly worst play
>>>your opponent might also be playing perfectly bad or close enough to that so you
>>>don't lose every time.
>>>You can thus never get an expected score of 0 and an equivalent rating of
>>>-infinity.
>>>
>>>-S.
>>
>>What is your point?
>
>To inform you that zero is arbitraty value, and that it isn't constant because
>even if his rating is 0 his expected score will be higher than 0.
>So he will lose rating if he doesn't score anything.
>
>-S.

The zero I mentioned was not arbitrary at at all.  It was not a rating but a
score of a game (0/.5/1.0).  Nobody in the USCF has a rating less than 100
because that is the rating floor for all.  So I still don't see the point of
your ramblings.
Jim



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