Author: Günther Simon
Date: 04:24:20 11/07/04
Go up one level in this thread
On November 07, 2004 at 06:50:58, ThatsIt wrote: >Hi to all ! > >Because of Eds remarks about my former experiment >(i cannot find the ccc-link now, the results can be seen on >www.pcschach.de) i've done it once more, this time with >40moves/8min. + 40/8 + 40/8... and 80 startpositions (write protect) >= 160 games per match. >Both, ruffian and list, don't produce learnfiles. >64MB HTs, 4erTBs, ponder=off > >1. Match ruffian 2.1.0 vs list 5.12 >75.0 - 85.0 (50-50-60) > >After that the procedure was always the same: >i moved the databasefiles onto a floppydisk and delete >them on the harddiskdrive. >Then i shutdown the machine and wait for exact 5 minutes. >Afterwards i turned on the machine, wait until the pc was >ready, doubleklick the CB-Symbol (first engine which were >loaded on the start were always crafty 19.13). >Now the tournament with the two engine has been started, >ruffian as fist engine, list as the second. > >repetition # 1 >78.5 - 81.5 (46-65-49) >no great difference in the final result but look at >the changes in the win-draw-lost statistics ! > >...same procedure... > >repetition # 2 >83.5 - 76.5 (52-63-45) >now the match result has turned !! > >For me it looks like a lottery. >Or is the choosen timecontrol sill to low ? I have no clue why you consider the results as a lottery? Actually they are pretty close and swing only around max. 3% above or below 50% for both opponents? (win-draw-loss distribution is also not much changed) From Ruffians POV: 75 = 46.87% 78.5 = 49.06% 83.5 = 52.18% A max diff of 5.31% hardly can't be called a lottery? From below computation by EloStat you see that in case 1 (worst) and case 3 (best) the rating margin with a reliability of 95% is between: 1 -> 2526-2620 3 -> 2578-2669 EloStat output for case 1 and 3: Wins = 50 Draws = 50 Losses = 60 Av.Op. Elo = 2600 Result : 75.0/160 (+50,=50,-60) Perf. : 46.9 % Margins : 68 % : (+ 3.0,- 3.7 %) -> [ 43.2, 49.9 %] 95 % : (+ 6.0,- 7.4 %) -> [ 39.4, 52.8 %] 99.7 % : (+ 9.0,- 11.2 %) -> [ 35.7, 55.8 %] Elo : 2578 Margins : 68 % : (+ 21,- 26) -> [2552,2599] 95 % : (+ 42,- 53) -> [2526,2620] 99.7 % : (+ 62,- 80) -> [2498,2641] Wins = 52 Draws = 63 Losses = 45 Av.Op. Elo = 2600 Result : 83.5/160 (+52,=63,-45) Perf. : 52.2 % Margins : 68 % : (+ 3.8,- 2.7 %) -> [ 49.5, 56.0 %] 95 % : (+ 7.6,- 5.3 %) -> [ 46.8, 59.8 %] 99.7 % : (+ 11.4,- 8.0 %) -> [ 44.2, 63.6 %] Elo : 2615 Margins : 68 % : (+ 27,- 19) -> [2597,2642] 95 % : (+ 54,- 37) -> [2578,2669] 99.7 % : (+ 81,- 56) -> [2559,2697] I don't remember Eds figures but I guess they had much more difference than those... Guenther
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