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Subject: Re: Fruit 2 and endgame play

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 15:45:47 01/12/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 12, 2005 at 17:49:17, chandler yergin wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 17:39:55, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 13:31:16, chandler yergin wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 10:54:26, Anthony Cozzie wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 02:33:38, Jouni Uski wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>In my (private) endgame testsuite Fruit scored better than some programs
>>>>>with tablebase support (e.g. Junior8 and Crafty).
>>>
>>>
>>>>Quite stunning - it seems,
>>>>>that excellent search depth compensates TBs!
>>>
>>> Your opinion.. Provide evidence!
>>>
>>> And my suite has some 5/6 piece
>>>>>positions were TB access is definitely advantage.
>>>>>
>>>>>Jouni
>>>>
>>>>IMO the 5-piece tablebases are just not that interesting and really not worth
>>>>that much in terms of elo.
>>>
>>>What are the Current ELO Ratings for Top Programs, including yours?
>>>
>>>THey represents exact play, and all positions possible are immediatly shown.
>>>What more can you expect?
>>>
>>>
>>>> A little endgame knowledge can cover most of the
>>>>positions and be a lot faster too.
>>>
>>>Absolute NONSENSE!
>>
>>Not nonsense.
>>
>>In most of the position of 5 pieces or less than it computers can find the right
>>move with no tablebases.
>>
>>Uri
>
>
>Nonsense Uri!
>They "May" find it... Ha Ha.. in how long!
>Stop the Crap!

Suppose that a tablebase takes 2 days to create today.
Next year it will take one day to create it.
The following year, it will take 12 hours.
Year 3: 6 hours
Year 4: 3 hours
Year 5: 90 minutes
Year 6: 45 minutes
Year 7: 22.5 minutes
Year 8: 11.25 minutes
Year 9: 5.625 minutes
Year 10: 2.8125 minutes
Year 11: 1.40625 minutes
Year 12: 42.1875 seconds
Year 13: 21.09375 seconds
Year 14: 10.546875 seconds
Year 15: 5.2734375 seconds
Year 16: 2.63671875 seconds
Year 17: 1.318359375 seconds
Year 18: 0.6591796875 of a second
Year 19: 0.32958984375 of a second
Year 20: 0.164794921875 of a second.

What that means is that perfect information will be generated in a fraction of a
second, if that is what is desired.

This is a conservative estimate, since compute power seems to be growing
superexponentially, rather than just exponentially.



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