Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 16:56:25 01/12/05
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On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote: >Dann, > >>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible. > >I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess. This assumes > >1) 10^120 possible positions This is far, far too large. Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits, which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than that). >2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as moot. >3) Moore's law holding ad-infinitum i.e. doubling in speed every 18 months >4) Assume that we're happy to let a computer ponder for one whole year to solve >the game (i.e. 31.5 million secs) >5) Today the fastest quad PC can analyze 5 million pos / sec today > >These assumptions imply that after 273 years the fastest computer systems will >be able to solve chess given 1 years worth of thought!! > >Of course I doubt that Moore's law will hold for 300 years - but who knows! > >I think I know the answer already 1.e4 draw!!! > >Steve
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